Quote from: cloudnthings on June 09, 2016, 01:16:15 AM

Quote from: Slippin_Jimmy on June 08, 2016, 11:11:52 PM

I'm looking at it mathematically. In theory the halving will make Bitcoin's price 2x what it is, simply being it becomes twice as scarce. Well this is not actually what is going to happen. Let's look at some key factors:

1) New s9 is shipping out june 12th. This promises mining with AT LEAST 2.5x less power. (.1j/gh as opposed to the s7 .25j/gh)

2) Mining being 2.5 more efficient with new machines means that while the old machines stop, there will be huge influx of petahash from the new extremely more efficient miners, while s7 will probably still be profitable, if only a little.

3) More efficient means that miners will sell their coins for 2.5x less than they normally would because it costs them that proportionate amount less to mine them.

So, all things considered, I think it will be almost entirely similar on a mathematical scale. What changes is people's mind with Bitcoin supposedly being half as abundant, which I think is why we're already seeing a rally to try and speculate what price level it will be at.

In short, Bitcoin supply is going down by 1/2 but the mining machines are 2.5x more energy efficient. So in straight math form, Bitcoin should actually drop in price from the halving by 25%.

Good starting point. Next, you take into account the human factor. Emotion + FUD + media + rumors = Who knows.

Thank you haha. Yes, it is very unpredictable in that way. As far as I can tell, the halving only creates a bull market for Bitcoin as the perceived value and rarity doubles. Notice how I said "perceived" haha.