Eventually, technological advances will lower the cost of resources required to mine Bitcoins. You are not addressing that with your math. I will post more detailed calculations later.
i will wait for your post about calculations.
i think its not happen when bitcoin halving come,i guess some miners quit from mine bitcoins or at least they think mine bitcoin no longer profitable. lets wish this is really happen.
I think the miners would not go for a halving of the year. reward is still promising. and many more that have not been mined bitcoin? I'm sure the miners are still eager to be bitcoin mining. at least not for halving this year dude
Bitcoin mining is always profitable, as long as you adjust your costs to match what it is costing you. Mining isn't like mining in real life; you can't have better deposits. You can only have the same consistent reward, and it costs the same amount per hash (most of the time) so no miner has an advantage, per say.
We'll still have a lot of miners for a fairly long time yet.