Quote from: Bharel on February 09, 2013, 09:35:56 PM

Hey guys!

My name is Bar. I've entered the Bitcoin market after 6 days of research. I've read about the whole system, from ups and downs, from FBI files to proofs-of-work. 2 days ago, I've decided entering into the market, and in 2 days, I got back my transaction fees. I invested a small amount of 100$ to test it. As of now, I like what I see. Today, I took out the big guns, and ordered a fair amount of Bitcoins. Question is this, what would the guys in here say? Will the market value continue to rise? Will it reach the 30$ like it did once? Will it drop right afterwards or continue to rise up to the sky? What is your forecast guys?

I still regret I didn't hear about it earlier, in January when it was a great time to invest.

Many thanks,
Bar

Welcome Bar. Right now if you venture over to the Speculation sub-topic you will find hugely varying opinions on this with people arguing passionately why they believe the price will move up or down (not many arguing for leveling here though!). Your $100 test is fine for testing the process of buying but I would advise strongly against looking at your gain over the last two days as an indication that you should invest more.

I think you need to come to an opinion as to whether you think Bitcoin has an immense potential and is likely to reach it (in which case they are currently really cheap), how likely do you think some replacement coin, a government clampdown, a technological attack or weakness or something else will come along and smash most if not all out of its price or something in between. I'm talking long term here. Once you have decided what you think is the most likely scenario there's the question of where we are now. How widely is it used, how much of it is in the hands of those who are looking at some point in taking a profit in dollars/euros/pounds. How much is in 'weak hands' or nervous hands where a drop in price would cause them to lose confidence and sell (thus accelerating a downward spike), how many who say if the price came down to x that they would use it as an opportunity to buy would in such a circumstance still remain confident enough to do so. Where would you stand. if you are going to buy would you consider yourself a 'trader' and try and sell to buy cheaper regularly (a dangerous tactic so far with many getting left behind with fiat having to buy back in more expensive)? If you believe it likely it will be a lot more successful than it is and you are not trading would you be OK to watch it go to two thirds, half or an eighth of the price you bought (with no obvious reason undermining the fundamentals) just to hold on maintaining your belief it will raise again?

One advantage we have is that there is, as you have been finding out, a huge amount of information out there with facts about how it works and its potential, about its history and of course the records of the markets with fiat currencies. And on top of that you've got the diverse opinions of people of journalists, economists and everybody on these boards. If you spend time reading you'll get to find who you think is talking sensibly and may want to give more weight to their opinions than others. Be wary not to let your own political opinions cloud your judgement as to the likelihood of Bitcoin succeeding. At the same time, be aware of other people's preparedness to buy into and determinedly hold onto Bitcoin because of their own political beliefs.

Last but not least. Whilst what you want to aim for (and to a certain extent have no choice about) is to trade your beliefs, also never forget nothing is certain in life and even if briefly, give yourself the opportunity without dismissing it too quickly of considering what would your situation be if Bitcoin crashed after you've invested most heavily. Is that a scenario you'd be OK with. If it scares you then maybe it would be an idea to be thinking of not speculating so heavily.

All the best with it all and welcome

Tf