Quote from: Raize on June 14, 2016, 10:03:51 PM

Quote from: hacknoid on June 14, 2016, 03:37:34 PM

However, and i will say it again, these graphs are only showing what is currently happening as compared to previous times. I absolutely cannot say that the price trend will go to new highs as in the past, only that the pattern looks the same. I just don't want anyone to think I am trying to convince them to buy. I still personally think there is room to go up, but who knows.

Thanks for giving the updates!

I have two models I've been using for my own pricing. Both of them are taking into account not only the magnitude of changes but also time period changes. You can see some of my predictions by going through my post history if any of you are interested.

I don't want to go into too much detail about my current system, but don't you think a price cycle should maybe take into account the following?

Total Shares Outstanding (or total coin outstanding)
Market Capitalization
Volume
Price
Time since previous ATH
Time since previous bottom
Change in magnitude of recent ATH to previous ATH

That's not to say spacing it out by 900 days is a bad idea, I'm just not sure if that specific trend can continue indefinitely. In fact, while some trends may be visible in hindsight, it might not always equate to a similar scale today. After all, where do you really start and stop? Do you completely ignore the time period before Bitcoin had a "price" of $0.10 as listed on Gox and was instead being sold primarily OTC? What if someone's model of off-chain transactions is better than yours? What about the Winklevoss twins having possibly portioned off most of their shares for ETF underwriting?

I have two models, one of which is eerily close to your 900-day one. I think the one that is not 900 days might be more accurate in the long-term, but it has been interesting watching this thread and how things unfold. Makes me hope I am wrong and the 900-day model is more accurate. If so, then it predicts over $10k by the end of next year which would be huge compared to waiting for 2020.

Hey Raize,

Could you please elaborate more the part in bold please

If you don't mind for sure.

Thank in advance.