Quote from: Raize on June 14, 2016, 11:08:59 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on June 14, 2016, 10:11:42 PM

Could you please elaborate more the part in bold please

If you don't mind for sure.

Two years ago I would have said no, but I'll go ahead and divulge some information for the hell of it since very few people actually take me seriously enough they won't likely act on my predictions.

That said, I need to preface this with the huge caveat that this should not be taken as sound financial advice. Invest at your own risk and I don't want to hear that anyone has taken out a second mortgage on their house to invest according to my estimates, but I do suppose there's some benefit in sticking my neck out with a prediction in case it does come true. One model predicts $10k by end of 2017, a second model predicted it by sometime in 2019/2020 (before the next halving most likely). The latter of the two models was my first one that I've been starting to think lately is too conservative. It is primarily based on the amount of time between the previous ATHs compared to each other and takes into consideration the magnitude of the price differentials as well. I'm not going to be extremely detailed, but I'll use some numbers to get the gist of it across. Remember that this first one is the model that I think is probably TOO conservative.

First high date: 07-18-2010
First high price: $0.09
First low date: 09-18-2010
First low price: $0.05
Number of days: 61

Previous high date: 06-08-2011
Previous high price: $31
Previous low date: 11-13-2011
Previous low price: $2
Number of days: 159

New high date: 11-30-2013
New high price: $1150
New low date: 1-14-2015
New low price: $160
Number of days: 411

First Time Factor: 159/61 = 2.61
Second Time Factor: 411/159 = 2.58

First Days Low till High: 263 days (09-18-2010 till 06-08-2011)
Second Days Low till High: 749 days (11-13-2011 till 11-30-2013)

Current Low Date: 1-14-2015
Estimated Third Days Low till High: (749/263) * 749 = 2133 days
Date Estimation: 1-14-2015 + 2133 days = 11/16/2020

First Price Factor $0.05 to $31 = 620
Second Price Factor: $2 to over $1k = 500

Current Low Price: $160
Estimated Third Price Factor: (500/620) * 500 = 403
Price Estimation: $160 * 403 = $64,480

If factor of price and time and the trend of those factors continues, that would be a value of ~$65,000 on or about Q4, 2020.

Now, here's why I think this is wrong...

Quarter to Quarter estimation from my raw ratios of the low compared to previous price swings:
Time   Price (High)   Price (Low)
Q1 2015   $317   $150
Q2 2015   $292   $190
Q3 2015   $486   $353
Q4 2015   $417   $340
Q1 2016   $370   $311
Q2 2016   $364   $326
Q3 2016   $356   $340
Q4 2016   $462   $362
Q1 2017   $628   $449
Q2 2017   $920   $628
Q3 2017   $862   $691
Q4 2017   $888   $711

Obscuring other data...

Q3 2020   $9,579   $8,319
Q4 2020   $14,478   $8,299
Q1 2021   $64,480   $14,289

After 2021 the bubble would be popping. At this point nearly every man, woman, and child in first world countries will know about Bitcoin and the subsequent bubbles will no longer be able to be multiple magnitudes more than the previous ones.

I was super-excited to watch the price increase almost exactly according to my numbers in Q3 2015 just as this chart had predicted, however I was not accounting for things like volume, total coin outstanding, and etc. Because of this, I was off on so many levels, but I still consider it a reasonable model, just not one I'd recommend a client use given what I know now. I think my numbers might also be close, but obviously the time-scale of them is "off".

My current model does see increases till ~$900 sometime this July-August and a decrease to low $700s shortly after in early Fall. It will then stay in that range into early 2017 with things picking up again after tax time (April) in 2017. From there it's basically a crazy ride till the end of the year when people take their profits in December over $10k. After that I'm not discussing what I predict and when, but I do think that on long-term scale the prospects are great.

Good luck!

I would like to thank you so much for taking the time to write this post and going into details, much appreciated.

For me, don't worry, my strategy is so simple, buy and hodl, whatever we will reach $1K or $1M in the coming 10 -15 years, I'm here for the long haul.

Now, questions time as I'm confused.

1. Which model is the "too" conservative, once you said the later of the two models and once you said the first one ?

2. Your best model or the model you are working on is the one that estimates $10K at Dec. 2017, am I right ? If yes, then why would be reaching $60's K at 2020/2021 could be wrong ? What will stop the increase ?

3. I believe in the $60's K somehow because from the above numbers, the numbers seems to go exponential, and this is how Bitcoin behaves, am I wrong ?

Waiting to hear from you

Thanks again to take the time and effort to write the post