Quote from: rpietila on December 28, 2013, 02:14:49 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on December 28, 2013, 01:20:22 PM

;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.

This is what I also believed before jumping in to be a full time market analyst. But with decent excel skills it is possible to model many situations where it makes sense to have less than 100% in bitcoins, or trade.

I have so many lines of data and charts, for example I have analysed the bottoms of the recent crashes to 5 minute precision in all of the exchanges to find out where I get the coins cheapest and in largest quantity, and how quickly it falls, how quickly it bounces back, what volume is reasonable to expect, so what size of orders are best to use. From next week I have a new half-time assistant doing mainly the analysis of exchange behavior, so that the capturing of tops and bottoms should happen with even greater precision.

Why I mentioned limit orders is that unless you have 24/7 trading (which I don't know if anyone has), it is reasonable to have quite a lot of fiat parked in the range 20-50% below the current price. The crashes are so deep and in a sense so predictable (not possible to know when they will happen, but play out quite the same every time) that the exact placement of orders can net you BTC10s easily. For example the Silk Road crash was an actual opportunity to buy at $90 in October. Yes, December-November-October. So many things happen in Bitcoin which cannot be predicted but can be captured with limit orders. Not being in Bitcoin is risky, but cutting your # of coins in half by insisting to buy now is not too smart either.

It is a shame that only stupid people tend to reply to my analysis, you know the ones who only want to know if the market will go up this afternoon (which in fact is the thing I could influence the most, thus nullifying the actual predicting) and cannot comprehend an advanced prediction such as "with 70% certainty we visit $450 before hitting $1,100 which makes it a wildly profitable +32% EV play after fees".

I am sorry if any person in any standing whatsoever has been offended because of my hard speech towards the trolls who don't know how to behave respectfully.

Besides there are some strawmen arguments that I have been wrong with market calls. There is one that I remember (quitting yelling "crash" when we had climbed to the top) but every other call since the start of the October bull market has been correct afaik. If you want to say that I was wrong, please post the wrong call in context and explain why it was wrong. Or refrain from lying.

quite barging already and stop acting as you are the smartest trader here, I do remember at one point you saying that you could buy the whole existing bitcoins I mean WTF...

you are what we call new money, people who are "so rich" should help some charities instead of acting smart and trashing people with "I have more you should listen to me" because this is just sick .

in the other hand these are the people who I love watching around the Bitcoin economy http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows/live-news/2013/12/bringing-homelessoffthestreetwithbitcoins.html

in case he decide to delete his post like he always do

Quote from: rpietila on February 15, 2013, 09:26:07 AM

Quote from: iamag on February 15, 2013, 01:52:59 AM

Quote from: rpietila on February 14, 2013, 08:37:46 PM

When I first heard about bitcoin, I could have bought it, lol. No, seriously, I could have bought maybe 5% of the supply and drive the price up 10000%.

Too bad, somebody else did. I suffer the consequences.

my main argument was that during the run up of apple and google there were people who said exactly this

im saying bitcoin is similar, you still wanna throw that bet down you never replied to that you nancy

No, I never had the money to buy the entire market cap of either Apple or Google. With Bitcoin, many of us did. Now THAT is a remorse.