After this first payment and as long as BFL and Avalon do not penetrate the mining market significantly, they make 0.1BTC per share per month. Given that 40% of that income is invested in the next batch or 50TH mining HW, chances are not all too bad to get back 0.4BTC per share within half a year.
Right, and that assumption is the clincher. IF BFL and Avalon do manage to penetrate the market deeply, it drastically changes the result. I find it unlikely that ASICMiner could operate unmolested for more than a few months, and so have taken that into account. The other thing is that while I fully agree that income should be reinvested in future batches, that reinvestment prolongs the time-to-payoff.
But as you said, no point in preaching to me, as I've already evaluated my situation.
