According to Jihan Wu, who controls Antpool (25% of global hashrate), there won't be any live segwit without a HF blocksize increase for 2017 activation.
So we get both! (or neither) Cool!
[img ]http://i.imgur.com/S89dQkA.png[/img]
This is very good, and is very important that he holds his ground. Bitcoin is in desperate need of a max block size increase, and as long as the blockstream core devs hold a veto card for any HF, it will be difficult to get a max block size increase without withholding support for something that the blockstream core devs need.So we get both! (or neither) Cool!
[img ]http://i.imgur.com/S89dQkA.png[/img]
Core team are increasing the blocksize, Segwit is that increase. They're increasing more than what the Antpool owner has demanded, so what his issue is, I'm not sure tbh. Let's not all forget that Antpool might have ~7% hashrate today, but tomorrow is another story. Even next Tuesday is a bit uncertain
You may have been out of the loop, that's OK Carlton, it's difficult keeping up with everything.
Everyone at the agreement understood segwit could provide up to 1.8MB (less than 2, afaict) equiv if everyone uses segwit(which they won't). I suggest you carefully read the agreement as it sounds like you have been misinformed, or are simply uninformed.
https://medium.com/@bitcoinroundtable/bitcoin-roundtable-consensus-266d475a61ff
Antpool has 17% of the hashrate today (we were both wrong but I was closer
). Also, they were not the only mining pool to be a signatory to that agreement, there is a good chance that Jihan is sticking his neck out and taking the heat for the rest of them. 
The fact remains, an agreement was reached with people who have the power to keep segwit unactivated unless their quite reasonable counter request is met. Without Core making a tiny compromise, segwit very likely could remain a monumental hypothetical coding exercise.
Cheers