Quote from: AmazonStuff on June 29, 2016, 03:08:24 PM

Quote from: iikun on June 29, 2016, 02:45:45 PM

Quote from: AmazonStuff on June 29, 2016, 11:57:29 AM

Quote from: Elwar on June 29, 2016, 11:30:21 AM

Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on June 29, 2016, 11:07:31 AM

My guess is the halving itself will be quite non-eventful

The last time there was not much movement in price. There was just a lot of talk.

Price on the day of halving went from about $12.20 to $12.35.

Exactly one year later the price was over $1,100.

Actually, 4-5 months later it peaked at ~~$1100~~ $266, but you must be aware that price doubled 2 months after halving and tripled 3 months after halving. I think that this time the change will be even faster, because mining is way to more competitive compared to 2013, miners have to dump as soon as they mine the BTC if they want to stay in game.

I agree that the change will be faster, but with lower rewards larger outfits will have to dump more often to recover their costs (as you rightly point out), leading to downward pressure, not upwards. Is this the change you are talking about?

No, I think completely opposite. Miners are already dumpers No.1, not because they love to dump, but because they have to dump in order to pay huge expenses and to do it before the competition (in order to get the better exchange rate and if possible push the competition outside the game). Their pace of dumping will be completely the same as it is now, but the amount of BTC that miners can dump will be 2x smaller then currently. Because the pace of dumping by miners is much quicker compared to 2012-2013, I expect that we will feel the positive effects on BTC price much quicker compared to 2013. Also because number of coins in circulation is now bigger, I don't expect 26x jump in price, but let's say we could expect at least 5x (I assume inverse quadratic function here). Because of human psychology and they constant urge to have new ATH, price will be 100% larger than previous ATH and will probably position itself at $3000 in 2015.

Interesting perspective. I have no real clue as to how often large miners sell their rewards, although I would have assumed they have enough working capital to be able to wait for high prices. That could be upwards of several months of course. I suppose we shall see soon enough though!