Quote from: THX 1138 on July 07, 2016, 09:10:39 PM

Quote from: iamnotback on July 07, 2016, 11:40:55 AM

Quote from: aminorex on July 07, 2016, 08:01:56 AM

Quote from: libertad on July 06, 2016, 01:44:17 AM

Is MA still calling for gold to drop below $900? That call doesn't seem likely at this time.

Actually I think that was one of his best calls. Came pretty darn close, at the bottom.

$1050 was the first target. We hit that.

MA stated it was possible for gold to decline further to $850 or even as low as $680, but this would depend on the reversal system. Just recently gold moved above the critical $1362 level, so it appears the lower lows scenario is no longer a possibility or at least we have rally period first.

The potential reason for gold to decline is when the stampede into the USD and US stocks begins in earnest (once it is clear that Europe is totally fucked), this could cause move out of anti-dollar assets such as gold and even Bitcoin. We could be seeing a bounce in gold because the outcome for the USA is still murky until after Trump wins and also because it is not clear yet to the mainstream that Europe has come off the rails. Thus indecision and move to gold instead of chasing the herd into the USD and US stocks, which will instead come later probably Q1 2017 or so, as MA has been indicating lately.

Also there rumblings out of Europe and also Trump about cracking down on regulating Bitcoin and the other means of sidestepping taxes and regulation. So that is another possible reason these assets could take a blow as capital controls are enacted and the USD and US stocks present a more sane alternative...

MA from Feb 16th:

"...We need a monthly closing in gold ABOVE 1363 and a quarterly closing above 1309 before you can negate a potential collapse below $1,000..."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-what-now-february-16th-2016/

I'm wondering if here he means that the "monthly closing" is specifically for Feb (plus end of Q1) this year or ongoing, so that we should be expecting to see above 1363 July month end and beyond before being reasonably confident of avoiding a "potential collapse below $1,000".

For what it's worth - and while acknowledging the other potential factors mentioned above - I feel the probability is now in favour of it not going that low. The public confidence in govt appears to be disappearing fast, especially recently with Clinton's non-indictment; Blair's Chilcot whitewash; the non-triggering of Article 50 for Brexit, to name just three - the list goes on and on.

I am not a paying subscriber so I don't know what he is writing now on his paid blog.

My guess is that the "monthly" requirement means we need to see a month above $1363, before we can conclude we aren't just witnessing a spike in volatility.

I don't think the public's confidence in government has disappeared. Rather the public is trusting the voting process enough to have 75% of the voters vote on the BREXIT referendum (a record voter participation level). And voters are becoming very passionate and engaged in the US Presidential election. So the public is focused on politics and the battle cry of voting out the incumbents. The public has not yet reached for their parachute. When they do other actions instead of political, then we will know they've abandoned governance and reach of their parachute.

At the moment, the investors are still conflicted about which is the stronger of the three: UK, EU, or USA, post BREXIT and pre-Trump election. The knee jerk reaction was to buy some gold in case the BREXIT sent the global economy into a tailspin. But the fact is that BREXIT is a non-event, because with only a 4% mandate over Remain, the Leave camp is losing momentum and leaving the EU will not happen quickly, if ever.

As time goes on, the reality of how fucked the EU economy is (incomes are now declining in EU) and how much lucrative the investing opportunity of buying US stocks is, that there will be a massive stampede into the USD and US stocks (probably starting Q1 2017 or thereabouts), which could take the luster away from gold and alternative assets such as Bitcoin.

In order to reach that lower low in gold, we need this deadcat bounce to draw in more tinfoil hats and bolster than TO DA MOON delusion.

When it becomes more clear that USD and US stocks are the only mainstream investment remaining that isn't paying negative interest rates, this could make small mcap volative assets such as gold and Bitcoin look much less attractive. Everyone is going to want to get on that bandwagon gravy train of a double or triple in US stocks. The public participation in US stocks is near an all time low. It can only go up.

I think we forget how clueless the sheeople are. They aren't even at the level of understanding what we all started to research and realize 10 years ago. Mainstream investors don't think we are on the cusp of Armageddon, otherwise the global economy would already be burnt to the ground with the loss of confidence. For them, the BREXIT was a like a one-off risk that had to be hedged with gold. The mainstream investors don't envision it as a succession of Leave votes and a devolution of the EU. The public is pissed off about the migrancy issue, but they view this as a political problem, not the economic abyss which it really is ahead.