Please write reasons why BTC should go up/down and write how important it is.
For the moment after the reduction of the block reward to the half in the halving the profit of the miners will be reduced to half
So possibility number 1: if the price is stucked at the same value or decreased we may see few tiny miners quitting which may lead to the price rises
Possibility number 2: miners having their profit reduced so they will push the price forward which is very likely to happens
For now the miners still have a nice reserve so we need to wait and see
Very realistic view and I agree with you too regarding what is going to happen. I also hope and dream that possibility number 2 happens very soon as that would be a great benefit to all of us who have been holding bitcoins from a long time now. But is also great that this possibility happens slowly and gradually in order to let even other people who have just started with bitcoin to collect some and also for them to get their share of this opportunity.