What matters is whether people are using bitcoin, and more than ever, they are. Also compared to the same time a year ago, the average number of daily transactions has more than doubled. A lot of this usage makes the price of bitcoin to rise.
I agree.
The thing that is going to drive the price now is usage.
We need more sites like Overstock.com to start accepting BTC.
If popular sites start accepting it as a form of payment, the price could jump much higher.
Mining difficulty, the rewarding halving, etc will only drive the price so much.
Keeping an eye on daily transactions is a good measure I had not thought about before.