As I say, I think the field is open to anyone's opinion; after all, this is the speculation forum. I'm sure the Winklevii coins' status, as well as that of other large holders (Tim Draper, for example, or the BIT) have an impact on price, as they effectively affect market liquidity.
I apologize for bumping this topic, but this is a good comment to quote given some recent revelations I've been made privy to. You're right in that this is the speculation forum. And God bless it! I think the Winklevii situation (their ETF) will come to a head soon, imminently or before the end of the year.
To sidetrack for a second, from what I read, the "hack" happened as a result of exploiting an actual rule of the DAO. Now, I have no investment in Ether or DAO tokens, but I have been watching them with interest. From the point of view of my analysis, certainly any "distraction" from Bitcoin as the digital currency of choice will slow adoption. Ethereum is interesting, but is also a dangerous, unproven game. And I think that has played out in the last few days. Complex systems are prone to complex bugs, or "features". Bitcoin has been battle-tested for more than 7 years, and still shines. Some of the best minds have tried to break it, including Dan Kaminsky, and it held up. So this certainly argues for trust going with the proven party. It will be interesting to see where things go from here. I think a lot of people who don't comprehend the whole industry will latch onto "cryptocurrencies are hackable" as a tagline, and stay away.
I think a large number of people interested in the DAO will see Bitcoin as the more stable option amongst pretenders.
Good news is that volatility has quieted down and we are reaching the end of a large pennant... look for breakout soon. But which way?
The breakout might not have been "soon", but it happens regardless.
Keep updating us on the cycles. Even if we're not exact, I think there's more to this than meets the eye.
