Quote from: Bugpowder on March 03, 2013, 03:57:59 AM

Quote from: Deprived on March 03, 2013, 03:52:30 AM

Quote from: zkay on March 03, 2013, 03:40:43 AM

Quote from: Deprived on March 03, 2013, 03:31:09 AM

Quote from: zkay on March 03, 2013, 03:17:24 AM

Any ideas why the share price is diving right before the dividend release? Last trade was barely above the last tranche evorhees released.

It's absolutely tiny volume. One person selling 0.01% of the outstanding shares needs no reason other than that one person needed or wanted to sell their shares. There's usually very few buy orders up (other than at low prices to catch anyone who mistypes the number of zeros) so it only take someone selling a few 10ks of shares to make it look like the price is crashing.

If there was some significant reason then you'd be seeing Ask walls up with hundreds of thousands of shares in them.

There's one person trying to sell 30k shares - looks like he just automatically undercut a 1k order at .006. The other small sell orders will be people who just got sold into and are looking to flip the shares quickly to pick some more up from anyone who is panicking.

When there's only one sell order of any size at a low price there's two possibilities:

1. One person somehow knows something major about S.DICE that noone else knows.
2. One person needs some cash quickly.

One of those two options is a regular occurrence. There IS actually at least one more option - but you'll have to work that one out for yourself.

Awesome! Thank you for this. As a person new to btc and investing I greatly appreciate clear explanations.

What happened next is also standard.

He puts up his sell order. Other people (I'm one of them) realise he's in a rush to sell - so lower their own bids and also put up small asks just below his. Although those orders are small they force him to either undercut or to sell into the bids. But he's in a rush to sell and will have noticed bids being taken down/lowered.

Which is why the 30k Ask vanished and bids got filled down to .005.

But he left up a single 100 bid at .005. What does that mean? That means he still has shares left and left it up as he wants people to overbid it. So of course anyone with awareness of what's happening will put up more bids BELOW that to try get shares as cheap as they can (though inevitably someone who doesn't know what's going on will overbid it and everyone else then has to raise their bids).

That's one of the ways to make profit in an illiquid market - when you see someone is desperate to sell OR buy, try to make them do it from YOU at the most advantageous price you can.

Well the 637k ask wall came down. About 100k has been bought around .005-.0055 in the last 10 minutes. So I would say there is about 537k of 'shadow' inventory for sale at .0050001. If you want to put a bid up at or above there, I'm sure it will get sold into.

Didn't have much cash there to spend - but bought what I could in the .005-.0055 area. Was deliberately low on cash as expecting the S.DICE dividend which I have to convert to LTC for my pass-though - so had run cash down so as not to need to move or exchange funds.

EDIT: And yeah, looks like its a more significant quantity that has been in decreasing Ask walls for a while. Someone who bought out one of the vorhees batches and didn't manage to flip for the profit they expected and now wants cash in a rush would be the obvious guess. If he got them in the first batch then he's still doing OK if he sells at .005.