Quote from: DrG on March 05, 2013, 09:25:26 AM

Quote from: Johnny-Gear on March 05, 2013, 04:57:17 AM

Quote from: cdog on March 05, 2013, 04:00:37 AM

Quote from: crazyates on March 05, 2013, 03:21:32 AM

Quote from: Johnny-Gear on March 04, 2013, 11:16:26 PM

Is that 19,000 number accurate or an exaggeration? source?

Buying in at this point is a risky proposition. Perhaps even across your suggested 12 month period I would likely wait for hardware. The price of BTC is at a record high, and I have been around long enough to know what is likely coming.

EDIT:
- thanks for the link to the forum; didn't realise there was a BFL forum.

- I saw a post with something about 16,000 queue which makes your 19,000 figure look a little more credible: Are all the ASIC chips common for all units, so every BFL product (and the entire queue of pre sales) is waiting on the same chips?

Don't listen to cdog. Bitcointalk is filled with people of 2 different camps: Those who have orders with BFL, and those who think BFL is the devil incarnate. He's obviously of the latter mindset.

There are 19,000 order numbers, but they started at ~1600, and only paid order numbers actually get shipped. It ends up resulting in a lot of false numbers that aren't really orders at all. I myself went thru 7 order numbers before I finally bought my first SC Single (due to wallet problems), so there aren't actually 19,000 people in front of you.

A: I am a BFL customer, so I dont know what you are talking about
B: The false ASIC orders were removed from their system recently. So its 19,000 - 1600 or whatever # of FPGA units they sold is.

My point stands. If you dont mind being out $30k for 18 months and then making a marginal profit, its probably a good gamble.

Thanks for the response.

I am reconsidering the 30K unit, as it seems like getting several 60 GH/s units may be the better way to with the current backlog of BFL orders. The $30K may be too big of a liability for anything > 6 months wait...

Does anyone know if there is a good place to look for people selling their BFL pre-sale queue positions? Also, is there a good way to do this; Do people get updates regarding their position in queue?

I would be happy to pay a premium; almost goes without saying.

Regards,

Johnny

The people who are at the very front of the queue, like myself, will most likely not give up their spot for anything less than an obscene amount. Many people have asked looking for a June or early July order -good luck - you're better off finding a Cass coin on the sidewalk.

The other issue is BFL and Avalon will not allow changes to shipping address to avoid issues with people's accounts getting hacked. So even if you bought someones order you would then be delayed by waiting for a second shipment.

Best bet now would be to buy coins and wait for a strategic entry timing (as more ASIC vendors will pop up).

Thanks for the response.

I understand your viewpoint but at the time the ASICs were announced I was skeptical and the market was far more bearish, thus my lack of investment. At this point however, the market is far more bullish, and that's why me and everyone else is here trying to make the safer bet.

I am sure, though, that there are at least a few people in less than optimal financial situations willing to take the smaller profit now than wait and risk the difficulty increase and unknown BFL wait times. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

The second shipment is fine, because I would not accept a spot in queue from anyone outside US who is not in Australia or New Zealand or somewhere else close. This means that the total extra shipping time is likely negligible as US to US shipping should be relatively quick.

I think looking for new ASIC vendors is a silly option; The very same problems we have seen with Avalon and BFL and other startups will plague any new startups, but not only that. BFL and Avalon have a first to market advantage which means they have much more capital to throw around due to interested buyers. They also have their R&D data to draw from, which when talking IC fabrication and assembly, is pretty damn valuable. Furthermore, they have actually done fab runs of chips and assembled the devices along with testing them. This process will only be streamlined and specialized from here on out, making BFL and Avalon pretty formidable competitors for any new entrant.

Regards,

Johnny