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Quote from: Layla Mckenzie on August 11, 2016, 03:08:18 PM

Let's say I can invest 0.20BTC for 6 months, is there an average on what I would be earning or even a potential, thanks.

No one can say how much you can earn in that timeframe as your profit will depend on how much the house wins against the players, if the house loses ofcourse you will lose too so there is no guarantee

There should be a semi predictable amount of return if you know the daily betting volume. I am not sure what it is, but Quickseller put up a formula a few pages ago that shows you how to calculate it.

That prediction is waaaaay off, if you invested then you should know that

No its not. It's called variance and happens in the short term. If you know daily betting volume and the houses edge, you can easily calculate what your expected profit should be. In the long run you will be right on, in the short run, you'll show variance. It's called math and it's absolute.

As if, that's way to simple, and your forgetting the human factor of not stopping with playing.
Please scroll through dicesites.com and look at how spot on the calculations are in 2 years time.
Even moneypot got An expected value of 477btc but got a Profit of 697btc, and this is when we just had a big loss of almost 60 btc (went from 430 to 370)....

That is called short term variance. In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit. Its just math and you can't argue with that. 2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough. I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

In that case anything can be called short term in this fast paced industry wich Comes back to the fact that you can't predict it in such a short time frame..... Because the question was Profit in 6 months right.
Which makes it kinda look like you just want to make a theoretical math Point that can't be used for the questions People ask most of the time.

If you can't use the exact method to determine what your expected profit will be...what can you use?

Nothing if you don't want a calculation that needs years upon years and even with that time you still got all the variables

For anyone that want to know 1 month it turned 16,7% 2nd month it was 10,5%, 3rd month it was maybe 0-2%