Quote from: DebitMe on August 12, 2016, 03:43:01 PM

That is called short term variance. In the long run, as I have said, you will always end up at an expected profit. Its just math and you can't argue with that. 2 years time can be considered short term if your bet volume is low enough. I don't remember enough statistics to show how long you would have to look for based on a given volume to be within a single confidence interval, but it def can be done and calculated.

Nope. It might be maths, but it's wrong. Over a long or infinite period of time, MP investors are *not* guaranteed to be an expected profit.

Case to consider: Imagine a casino that has a 1% house edge, but risks 99.99% of it's bankroll each bet. Over an long enough period of time, how much money do you think the casino will have? (Answer: It's bankroll is always going to keep getting wiped out to near zero and despite infinite amount of EV the house will never make money).

Quote from: dooglus on August 12, 2016, 05:09:32 PM

That's a common fallacy. Whether every player keeps playing until they bust, or stops as soon as they are ahead, the law of large numbers still applies, and the house profit still tends towards the expected house profit in the long run.

I believe that is a fallacy itself (as can seen by this thread). It only holds under a set of preconditions that MP doesn't currently satisfy.

Quote from: Quickseller on August 12, 2016, 05:36:41 PM

Suppose the bankroll is 100 and the daily betting volume is 100. Over a 365 day year, 36,500 will be gambled and with a 0.5% HE 182.5 will be won by the bankroll. This is a 182.5% return on the bankroll.

Isn't this still off by 3.33x?

36500 bitcoin gets wagered @ 0.5% HE, then investors have to pay the app a fixed 91.25 BTC, and a have to pay a fixed 36.5 BTC to MP itself. So that leaves investors with 54.75 BTC in EV but all the variance of fielding the bets.

On top of variance, there's also some other conflating factors: both other investors (you should probably expect to get diluted over time, unless something goes really wrong), and players (not every EV is created equal. How someone bet *does* impact your expected final bankroll).

tldr; Don't try to predict how much you'll make Cool