Quote from: ranlo on August 12, 2016, 08:38:34 PM

One thing I was planning to do was run a weekly analysis on return, but decided it may not have much use since the past is no determinant of the future so the data, while it's good for the existing period, has no real value going forward. That said, if people do feel it would have value, I can definitely do that moving forward and report weekly or monthly or whatever.

Yeah, I think you should definitely do it. I'd probably make it monthly, as updating it every week will get exhausting and monthly will be smoother.

Quote from: Deuceisgood on August 12, 2016, 11:16:03 PM

Question B: In that ~2 month window roughly leading up to the DDOS attack and extended downtime the bankroll was booking profits on the order of 0.50% per day. I tracked my returns daily and on June 15 my daily CAGR (constant average growth rate) was running 0.56%. Yes, that is over 600% per annum. According to my hand-recorded stats, there was one 53-day stretch during which only 6 days saw a loss.

Since returning to operations following the DDOS bankroll returns have been decidedly negative. I haven't been keeping exact figures but we can see that investor profits have fallen from about 434 btc in mid-July to a current 368 btc.

Are the DDOS attack and the subsequent operating recovery related in some way to the dramatic fall in bankroll returns? Have there been any changes since the DDOS/server migration that would alter expected bankroll returns?

Variance. It's a bitch. No matter how much you understand how much of a bitch variance is, it'll always surprise you. (It's a bit like software estimates, even if you know they're always off they'll still always be off).

As an example, this is the profit from ~4 months of the site I run:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/rmczv2tqcr196vz/o5m3b06g.png

Looks pretty stable, eh? Well, with the same amount of volume and absolutely no changes last year I had a **four** month period in which the site hadn't made any. At one point I started to seriously think someone had discovered the server seed and was subtly siphoning off all the profits, so the site neither made nor lost money. (but nah, was just variance and some aggressive loss chasers)

--

Also to add to that, the style of play by the whales on the site will make a massive difference. MP has been extremely lucky to have some whales who just seem to deposit and then grind the money away, and then repeat -- which is why it had some pretty steady reliable growth. But if your whales are loss chasers / martingalers, you'll notice a pattern more like one from betking:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/spa/rmczv2tqcr196vz/a6x747dr.png

Reverse martingalers (or people who like to gamble hard with their profits) will tend to create an inverse looking chart (steady gains, then big unexpected drops) etc.