Quote from: freedombit on January 16, 2015, 08:40:34 AM

Quote from: bitcoinvest on January 13, 2015, 10:42:21 AM

what is your point on that?

Look at the data - most heists are very small. However, there are three heists that are very large. It is kind of like a puzzle, and fortunately for us, the pieces are SO BIG and there are SO FEW that it seems to be fairly easy to start to put the pieces together.

850,000    Total MtGox loss according to rumors (I've never seen this as an official number).
744,405    Total MtGox loss according to Leaked Emergency Plan.

171,995    Amount lost on Bitcoin Savings and Trust.
263,024    Amount Seized from Silk Road by DHS.
207,000    Amount of MtGox Suddenly "Found".
642,019 Sum of the three amounts above.

624,408    Amount of MtGox customers' coins that are "temporarily unavailable".

All three of these events; Bitcoin Savings and Trust, Silk Road, and MtGox are tied together.

All of the people closest to both sides are not saying a thing:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=871094.0;topicseen

Negotiations are happening behind the scenes. DHS, FBI, CIA, NSA or some other government agency from the US started seizing hardware and coins, but a handful of people at MtGox managed to protect a good portion of the coins by accidentally losing them. MtGox depositors got impatient, and Karpeles was forced to declare insolvency to protect himself from government officials that might have been a little over zealous. There may have been some "illegal" activities happening to protect the remaining Bitcoin, but it was viewed as justified because the prior seizures themselves are arguably "illegal". Irrational people on both sides did a lot of name calling, and over time, both sides realized how bad this looks for both sides. So, again, negotiations are happening. Seized and sold bitcoins are being "recovered" through drop and shop techniques on the market, pushing exchange rates down and grabbing BTC when possible. Eventually Kraken will announce that it is returning the the Bitcoin to early adopter Bitcoin users that never did a damn thing to deserve this from any of the parties involved.

Okay, so this last line is hopeful conjecture, but if it doesn't go down like this, it will be a major stain on all parties involved. If it does end like this, some of those moon travelers out there might get to put their suits on early.

Edit: if someone would like to footnote and provide sources for my numbers above, that would be nice for the community. I was going to but am a bit tired. Maybe another day.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4yl7do/mt_gox_might_have_been_insolvent_as_early_as_july/