Quote from: rpietila on August 24, 2016, 07:48:15 PM

However, technical analysis ignores fundamentals and news, insider information, and everything except price, and that alone.

I think that is not the best mode of technical analysis. The good form of technical analysis is the use of price movements as observable signals about mass psychology. Prices are determined by mass psychology, a wealth-weighted voting system. Rules of thumb inferred from many observations of common market patterns are really rules about mass investment psychology, summary statistics over conditional histories.

Yes, you can usefully apply technical analysis on the basis of price and volume alone. I often do, simply because I have limited information . (I consider that a very small edge, and only ever take very small positions on that basis.) But if you allow the known facts to inform your technical interpretations, your predictive power will increase dramatically, in the cases where those facts are available (and relevant), and you can increase your sizing accordingly, so such cases are much more useful and important.

This is particularly relevant in crypto markets, I think: The fundamental factors can much more easily dominate over the mass psychology of a relatively small audience, and event risks tend to be large relative to market size.

There is little enough harm, I suppose, in waiting for 0042. If it never drops below 0075, well, you can always buy higher, and you're protected against the possibility of experiencing a period of regret before the next impulsive rise (which can be reasonably expected to occur on 1 Sep). However, I urge my close friends to establish some position immediately, regardless of price, and then to grow it over time. Opportunistically, if may be. With discipline, if not.