Quote from: ArticMine on August 24, 2016, 07:58:28 PM

Quote from: rpietila on August 24, 2016, 07:24:36 PM

Everything is possible, but I believe the most likely scenario is 2nd Fibonacci retracement of the newest move. The move looks like a double top, also bouncing down from the Mintpal resistance level, so is technically bearish now.

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult, can be at least 0.00100, 0.00161, 0.00263. Depending which one we take, the retracement bottom should be somewhere between 0.00420 to 0.00520.

Retracing to that price range and bouncing back up, is also supported by theory that the secular resistance in 0.00420 has become a support due to the breach in high volume. The support must be tested, after which the rise can continue.

A retest of 0.0042 to 0.0043 actually does make a lot of sense to me as a correction, given this was a very strong resistance level that has now become a support level.

I could see that as well but, I think the twist here is how much Monero will need to be bought by new users for actual usage to be pulled into the DNM ecosystem in the next week or month? That effectively takes them out of the exchanges and reduces supply.