Quote from: aminorex on August 26, 2016, 03:27:54 AM

Quote from: smoothie on August 26, 2016, 01:15:57 AM

How did you come to that conclusion that 10% implies $25?

Frankly, it's a SWAG. Give it no weight because I haven't done the math yet. In fact, I haven't even built a proper parametric model to calibrate with data yet. Not that it's hard. It's not. Go for it. I am sure you can provide a more principled number, more worthy of contemplation. Of course it will be subject to endless debate regarding parameters, at least. These forums are excellent sources of criticism and refinement, if you can disregard the noise, because people here care about the subject.

My hand-wavy reasoning is that AB does at least as much traffic as SR. Incremental QToM value derives from that traffic. SR supported roughly $100 BTC. (BTC and XMR float are close enough to disregard at this level of granularity.) Thus, 10% of AB should support about $12 in incremental value. The baseline to which that adds is the value before AB traffic (31 Aug), which I estimate at $8, for a total of $20. The additional $5 comes from a seat-of-the-pants adjustment for increased speculative interest in the 2016 environment, as compared to the 2013 environment. I think it is a very conservative estimate of the correct multiplier.

XMR China News: http://tech.qianlong.com/2016/0825/868402.shtml
http://www.insightcrime.org/news-analysis/us-shell-companies-aid-crime-groups-in-latin-america-and-beyond
http://www.insightcrime.org/news-briefs/report-highlights-importance-of-trade-based-money-laundering-2
http://www.insightcrime.org/news-briefs/sinaloa-cartel-laundered-money-in-colombia-using-textiles-report

mainstream media - cnn,cnbc have not mention Monero yet. If this happen, then what to price?