Based on short-term mining I get a value of around .2-.35 per share : not too far off from your own (once you double yours for you error on the 400k shares and add on .04 for the higher dividends until 0.1 is reached).
Show a calculation tho, can't hurt.
Now if that were the only value of the share then the price would obviosuly drop as dividends were paid. But the ability to produce more batches of the ASICs at minimal cost adds rather a lot more to the long-term value.
Well, it's not clear what minimal cost is. This original 12Th ish batch cost something like 20k BTC + maybe 100k fiat? (depends how you count those debts exactly) in terms of cash and about nine months in term of time (it's not actually online yet, but let's pretend). If indeed those new batches may be produced, they'd hit next spring at the earliest, and further dampen dividends up to that point through their cost. If things move linearly then 120Th costs 10 times what 12Th costs, and so there will be absolutely no dividends for the entire 9 month interval (but more debt accumulated).
As for shorting - I'll be interested to see how that turns out.
Me too, for that matter. So far INAU seems to have trouble connecting to irc. In any case, MP's shorts always have been publicly reported (as part of a more encompassing policy of his to keep his liabilities public knowledge).