Quote from: Furi Bliz on August 29, 2016, 06:01:21 AM

Rpietila/Wise Ones do you still concider 0.01 level to be a realistic dump level? Or is the dump that low anymore possible. Monero has broken pretty much every scenario that i know or am i just looking at this thing on a too short time-frame.

Yes, I am a fan of support/resistance levels theory still, and Fibonacci levels also, and to some extent Elliot waves. And the most I like scenario/probability analysis.

Let's revisit my "original" reactions to the sudden rise that followed the breaching of the .0042 resistance:

Quote from: rpietila on August 24, 2016, 10:18:53 AM

Well it sure looked special, turning half of the existing XMR in 24 hours. Reminds me of the Mintpal pump.

That said, I believe much good was achieved regardless of anything. It is possible that this was the first real upleg. Or even if we fall back, I believe 420k will now be a strong support. Even going to 180-240k, nothing new there. Not many thought it possible to revisit 100k, yet even that happened!

Quote from: rpietila on August 24, 2016, 07:24:36 PM

Everything is possible, but I believe the most likely scenario is 2nd Fibonacci retracement of the newest move. The move looks like a double top, also bouncing down from the Mintpal resistance level, so is technically bearish now.

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult, can be at least 0.00100, 0.00161, 0.00263. Depending which one we take, the retracement bottom should be somewhere between 0.00420 to 0.00520.

Retracing to that price range and bouncing back up, is also supported by theory that the secular resistance in 0.00420 has become a support due to the breach in high volume. The support must be tested, after which the rise can continue.

Quote from: rpietila on August 25, 2016, 08:28:52 AM

The consolidation continues. I am inclined to see 0.008-0.0085 as a short term resistance now. Unless we get there in 2 days, this is confirmed, and the 0.01 double top is confirmed as well (2014,2016).

If we resume the grinding slide that I am forecasting, it may take months to reach the target 0.0042. And of course there is never a guarantee that it is reached. If great news come, it is likely to throw the grind scenario out of the window.

Quote from: rpietila on August 25, 2016, 09:42:37 PM

The speculator must take into account all price scenarios, and ensure that none of them is ruinous.

And then after the second breakout, making an ATH in the process:

Quote from: rpietila on August 28, 2016, 09:19:11 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on August 28, 2016, 08:28:21 AM

What happened to waiting until the price drops to the .004s? Grin

That was one very valid and probable scenario, considering XMR price history since the beginning.

Now, the likelihood of going back to 0.004 is not large anymore.

If someone has sold speculatively, or wants to enter, it might be better to buy than wait for an uncertain meagre drop in price.

The people who bought BTC at $7 did very well.

Quote from: rpietila on August 28, 2016, 01:38:22 PM

Why changed my mind so soon?

1. I did not. It was all scenario thinking all the time. This scenario leaves no prisoners so better adapt quickly.

2. The influx of so many new people in the scene, who do not know or care about me, proves the growth (and is liberating)

3. The volume was/is huge. At first I took it as proof of artificial manipulation, but now it's at least possible the volume is real growth. If so, we are still much behind the equilibrium value.

So going back to 0.004 is not very likely. After only a few hours after breaking the ATH, I am leaning towards the negative scenario being 0.01 now.

My original probabilities when there was the breakout from 0.004 but initial failure to make an ATH:
- 30% that the ATH will be made without serious retracement
- 50% that there will be a retracement to the 0.004 zone but it will generally hold and become a confirmed support
- 20% that 0.004 will not hold and we go back to the previous trading range and all the 50k volume pump is a false breakout.

Here I told to refrain from buying, because it is 70% probability that we turn down, and if we do, the gain is at least double in the amount. If, on the other hand, the ATH is breached, I told in advance to FOMO, because that would confirm the first scenario that you do not want to miss out.

Currently it's hard to form scenarios because we are in uncharted waters but something like:

- 30% rise will continue without longer pullback, only flashcrashes
- 30% consolidation at 0.01 to confirm that as support, or staying in 0.01-0.02 range
- 40% we go lower than 0.01 (because it was a pump, or BTC rallies, or many reasons)

Despite that I forecast 70% probability for a decline and only 30% for the rise, I still exhort to buy or at least hold, because there is no limit to the upside in the positive scenario, yet the negative ones are very well contained, and even if they happen, you still hold the XMR and it will go back up later.