Quote from: aminorex on September 06, 2016, 04:45:28 AM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on September 06, 2016, 03:53:09 AM

I have been thinking the exact same thing. Its the next part that delights me. What motivation does he have to do this... Right here... At the all time high? Why?

He wants all the moneroj. Cheap. I am guessing he spikes it to 03, loans himself monero cheap, and shorts it down to 0188, holds it down a few hours so the ask fill in, then sweeps the book again. Its what I would do if I had about 30mm to play with and didn't care who got hurt. (But of course saying it in public reduces the likelihood quite substantially.)

Why? I imagine: He anticipates $100 moneroj in 12 months. But I think he's optimistic. $25 average, maybe with a spike to $40-50.

If he has $120mm to play with, the game changes. Then he plans to run the mcap up to 1bn, and start selling to HNW savers escaping DM tax/into policies. Freeport customers, that sort. That's a 5 year game that nets him about $1 bn and puts XMRBTC at parity 3-5 years ahead of the organic schedule, his final notional exit point. No reason to add big (40-60% swing) vol in that case, just ramp it until you run dry, short it 20-30% down, rinse, repeat. My 12 month estimate would be $125, were that the case. (Low probability due to capital outlay size.)

Anyhow, he's not doing it to make us wealthy, that's a certainty. It's just a happy side-effect. One way to help is to make market, but rather small and fast - with bots, really, using very little capital, except on wide spreads, biased upwards. You might lose a wee on the inside every time he makes it rip or dip, but hopefully your deep-book orders more than make up for it during vol spikes - and the visible liquidity attracts both currency uses and reserve clients for the whale.

Cool story?

Anyhow it's getting close to the hour when he tends to get twitchy.

Cool story but predicated on the understanding everyone else is fine playing out the game for her outcome. As you say, her intentions will not be altruistic but if she* goes complete 'rape and pillage' the market will eventually thin out -- so she has to give new money an incentive to enter the game. This clear and obvious wall strategy is going to become wearisome with the day traders especially.

I'm also wondering about your calculation that she totals 95% of the current market - surely the regulars here must alone total more than 5% of the order board (and significantly more in terms of total holdings).

*If the pronoun use here were accurate then perhaps this individual would be more altruistic Wink