Quote from: Vandroiy on June 02, 2011, 09:07:58 PM

Quote from: afterburner229 on June 02, 2011, 08:53:45 PM

Next step I will proof, also NOR kind & volume of goods, being traded via BTC directly, is growing exponentially. Stand by..

This should not be possible.

An exponential component is what you should mean, and that is very likely in a situation where new people continue to learn about Bitcoin and subsequently start using it. Of course, exponential growth will not continue after Bitcoin becomes macroscopic, which could be within months if things go on the way they are going now. However, you have no reason to expect price or the amount of Bitcoins traded to grow exponentially because of that. Currently, we have speculators -- later, we want traders! The transition will change how reach and price are linked.

Your reasoning assumes Bitcoin behaves like a Ponzi scheme. This need not be in the long run, and the profit margins allow speculators to wait patiently for quite a while. You must take into account that many speculators estimate the potential target price and success probability before buying. Those two multiplied are not growing exponentially just because the number of users is.

You misunderstand me. I want to know just number of bitcoin users as function of time. Because bitcoin society is too small, compared with typical large country, and bitcoin is the currency, not a telescope or vynil disc, etc, business field for the bitcoin MUST be comparable with typical large country, or even with the total world.

So actually, exchange volume, difficulty algorithm, etc. are just INSTRUMENTS for me to measure (estimate) number of bitcoin users as function of time.

SHORTLY: is bitcoin society << total world? Yes. is bitcoin society growing exp (+t)? No. => It will fail @ 100% probability.
Will professional gamblers win? Yes, even if bitcoin society will fail.