Quote from: oda.krell on September 14, 2016, 02:10:04 PM

Quite embarrassing to read my own posts from back then. In another post around that time, I assigned a "40% chance" to luc's prediction (of the coming year+ bear market), but actually, I didn't really take into account the possibility of it happening until much later.

Lesson learned (I hope).

I remember the times at the end of 2013 when I was drawing comparisons to 2011.

Quote from: Blitz on December 07, 2013, 05:22:11 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on December 07, 2013, 04:33:56 PM

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

I learned. Grin

Still learning.

Holding for nearly a year now, something which I never would have done in the past, but at last, I've become confident enough of this on a long time frame ever since it's bolstered by the weekly 200 SMA and failed to penetrate the 150 low in August last year. One big reason for me to take the most long term approach I possibly can is to avoid the disaster that potentially awaits when you hold a balance on the current amateur exchanges.

Since I expect Bitcoin to not only hit alltime highs, but surpass its former high by far, I won't even consider doing anything until then, unless the technicals get completely obliterated. Depending on the trajectory the price takes to this area, I may even decide not to trade it. It's entirely possible for Bitcoin to have a multi-year "steady" (well, by Bitcoin's standards) bull market.