Quote from: oda.krell on September 14, 2016, 02:10:04 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on December 07, 2013, 04:33:56 PM

Yeah, joining the choir of "luc(if) rules" voices. Been on the edge myself since the double top formed (weird, just notice that's only 2 days ago... feels longer), mainly believing we'll see consolidation rather than a sharp drop. But the combination of my own indicators, bad news, bad forum sentiment and finally, lucif's call made me substantially rearrange my position yesterday, just in time for the big drop.

I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.

But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

[Sorry for the OT post in this great thread. Will be the only one.]

Quite embarrassing to read my own posts from back then. In another post around that time, I assigned a "40% chance" to luc's prediction (of the coming year+ bear market), but actually, I didn't really take into account the possibility of it happening until much later.

Lesson learned (I hope).

almost no one expected a bear market this long, except a guy who proved to be a genius when it comes to predicting bitcoin.

let's hope his other prediction (a new bull market on 2016/2017) also proves accurate.

So far, 2016 is pretty good, but there aren't any clear signs of a real rally still.

And than there's the blocksize issue. (I can't believe Core is still the most popular version, even though 1MB blocksize is really not enough anymore).