Quote from: thoughtfan on March 15, 2013, 02:12:02 PM

With prices per hashing capacity virtually the same for the hobbyist (e.g. BFL Jalapeno buyer) and 'farmer' spending tens of thousands there are virtually no economies of scale to speak of which would drive the hobbyist out. It will take the same duration for the hobbyist and the farmer receiving their kit at the same time to recover their investment (other than for some variation in running costs).

This is a good point. I might even be willing to purchase a Jalapeno just to "help" Bitcoin, and I suspect there are quite a few people who feel the same. Enough? I don't know.

I certainly wouldn't expect a return on my investment, however. At current difficulty, one could respect a return on a Jalapeno in several months. Unfortunately, those Jalapenos will come out at the same time as all the other ASICs, and the current difficulty will skyrocket, pushing back a recovery on one's investment to a year or more on the assumption that BTC prices remain the same.

So you really do have to be seriously bullish on the price of BTC or be willing to be in this for the long haul in order to not just flush money away. It's not clear to me that enough folks will be wiling to do this.

Quote from: thoughtfan on March 15, 2013, 02:12:02 PM

The next percentage referred to is '1% of population'. It's unclear to me whether this refers to the currently mining population, to bitcoin user population or world population. Let's hazard a guess at Bitcoin user population?

I was referring to a much larger population than the current bitcoin user population. Something like the population of potential BTC adopters.

Quote from: thoughtfan on March 15, 2013, 02:12:02 PM

Other than for securing the network why does the percentage matter if the primary purpose of Bitcoin is not to make money for miners but to serve the needs of its users?

So you expect folks to mine, even at no profit, just to help the Bitcoin network? The question is whether there will be enough such people to keep BTC decentralized and secure when the massive ASIC farms start coming online.

Quote from: Eri on March 15, 2013, 05:33:39 AM

There is a roughly the same amount of BTC mined each day. [..] if the value is sufficiently high where someone can get the equipment to mine with and make a profit then people will do so.

This is a truism. It adds nothing to this discussion. You have to think about some of those "ifs".

Quote from: Eri on March 15, 2013, 05:33:39 AM

I would be intrigued to hear an argument as to how it is expected that ASIC (or any) mining will be anything other than marginally profitable in the long term, especially seeing as you don't need to be a geek anymore, rather just to buy something to plug into your PC and let it run.

Interesting point. But note that you also have to be willing to do this for free (unless BTC prices skyrocket). Your Jalapeno isn't going to pay itself off for a LONG time (again, unless BTC prices skyrocket).