Quote from: CryptoSporidium on September 23, 2016, 12:50:59 PM

Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?

That is interesting. It doesn't eliminate the risks inherent in zcash, but it does eliminate most of the smell, so it could see some up-take. The implied risk to XMR price (not to the utility, project, security, community or economy) is that capital will be attracted from XMR to community-zcash, which I will call snarkero, or XZK.

Here's how I see it: We know what value XMR had before DNM adoption was mooted, and it was about mcap $10mm. In the current initial stage of adoption, the value is about 10x. Thus, without adoption, the leading crypto in the fungible monetary domain is only worth a small fraction of the value of XMR today, and can only draw a small fraction of the capital away from XMR. The implied price risk amounts to about $1 per XMR, in the long run, as XZK gets the level of adoption seen by XMR before June (when AB insiders started accumulating in earnest).

On the other hand, there may be synergies which increase the value of both coins. Mcap may be mostly linear zero-sum, but building a monetary economy certainly is not. XZK may attract new money into anonymity, which, seeing the living economy and leading liquidity of XMR, then diversifies into XMR. In fact, I tend to think that until and unless XZK is adopted at similar scale, its introduction is likely to help XMR to grow.

The credibility of the team would largely determine the success or failure of XZK. Barring crypto vulnerabilities emerging in the moon math, if the fundamental trust issues could be managed to the satisfaction of the market, I could definitely see DNMs adding snarkero, once it reached a certainly liquidity. If so, they should be early buyers, attempting to front-run the possibility. If they use BTC they can be traced, and subjected to extortion. Therefore, they will need to use XMR to buy their XZK. Bullish.

Indeed I think the ideal outcome might be a zksnark branch in the XMR network. If the two were made transparently interoperable, it would provide immediate boostrap liquidity to the XZK, and mean XZK was already DNM-accepted.

Quote from: N-rG on September 23, 2016, 01:23:51 PM

Quote

When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic

U assumend correct.

Yes, XMR is the ultimate in anti-fragile (pace Taleb). Chaos and pain only makes counterparty-free and seizure-immune more attractive. Truly Nietzschean, Monero is.