Note still a looong ways from capturing the typical mainstream person who has no (even 2nd degree) relationship to crypto.
I'd speculate that 2nd degree connections are a good portion of the population as a whole...
I might agree except first we have to hurdle the problem that Steemit wasn't sticky with Asians (who live in Asia) and I believe ditto with Latin Americans, Africans in those regions. There is that one Chinese lady @sweetsssj who blogs daily.
Also Steemit wasn't sticky with the youth nor the middle-aged. The youth don't have the attention span for blogging (and that would to some extent include Asians, Latin Americans, and Africans since they are more childish and less sophisticated as evident by the TV programming). The middle-aged (e.g. myself) can't waste time on something not lucrative or important, unless it is for entertainment or philosophical.
You could easily just simplify this to say that it is sticky nor appeals to almost no one at all!
I think you'd agree we need to see both 2nd-degree onboarding and stickiness. Seems Steem may have gotten some 2nd-degree from the hardest core proponents, but they weren't broadly sticky.
Absolutely I would agree.
You don't need to lockup your investment for 1 year weighted average cashout in order to speculate.
You don't have this massive inflation.
This is double counting. If you do lock up your investment then you don't have the massive inflation. Especially since liquid supply is now over 10%. SP are now effectively deflationary (though one risk is there is no guarantee that continues for any particular time into the future).
Disagree. The confluence of the two makes the prognosis for locking up dismal because there is no investment case, and not even any medium-term speculation case thus no liquidity.
Can't agree with you here. The issue with locking up is not inflation. It might be that the application is a bad idea, execution is poor, competitors are stronger, etc, but none of those reasons for not wanting to invest in something for 1-2+ years have anything to do with inflation.
The liquidity factor is also negligible in those terms, where you are willing to invest for years because you view the prospects are very good. (Take AlexGR for example, he seems reasonably positive about it longer term, and likely doesn't care that he has to be locked in for at last 1-2 years.) Plenty of people invest in privately-held businesses, real estate, etc. without liquidity. Hell, even very large investments in highly-raded traded public companies aren't really liquid.
But whether we agree or disagree on this point doesn't really matter, since we clearly agree that the blogging model that is the focus of Steemit today is not a good model to want to invest in longer term (or at all). Frankly I'm disappointed that Steemit ended up going in that direction because the white paper wasn't really blogging oriented. I think that seems to be what they got done on the web development side in time for their (likely rushed) launch, so it ended up going that way.