Quote from: BKM on March 25, 2013, 03:39:52 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on March 25, 2013, 06:21:10 AM

Quote from: BKM on March 25, 2013, 05:52:27 AM

..........

Despite issues of timing, if I take the $16,000 investment for 2 x 85 Gh/s (ttl 170 Gh/s) from Avalon and (ahem) pre-order BFL machines now for an estimated total of 720 Gh/s purchase AND allow for in excess of doubling of difficulty from 12,000,000 to 25,000,000 for delayed delivery I show a total return of $125,000 for Avalon and $273,000 for BFL respectively based on a time frame of 12 months

Clearly, I have opted to order from your competitor.

Should your value proposition and business model shift to a more competitive stance in the future I look forward to having the option to become an Avalon customer as well.

Best of luck with Batch #3 and beyond and thank you for your groundbreaking contribution to the future of Bitcoin for all.

How are you modelling this?

Unless you have a good model of what the mining difficulty will be between the moment you start to mine and twelve months later, you can't estimate the btc earned. Further, unless you know what the exchange rate will be during that time period, you won't be able to calculate total return in dollars.

I wouldn't go making plans based on the figures you provide.

The 'modelling' is illustrative only and derived from http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/. I have only risked what I can afford to lose and understand that my choice is rife with assumptions.

My essential point is that if I take the risk with a BFL order the scale of the potential return vs Avalon given a doubling of difficulty between the timing of a prospective Avalon order and BFL is worth the risk for me.

A major factor in my decision is the fact that I can cancel an order within the next 30 or so days through my credit card purchase if I do not receive sufficient evidence that BFL is making substantive progress.

I will reassess when and if Batch 4 comes along.

You're missing out a few important factors. Here's a better model for you, hope it helps:

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/03/912-asic-choices-asic-earnings-update.html