Quote from: eleuthria on March 27, 2013, 07:51:46 PM

Quote from: slippyrocks on March 27, 2013, 07:44:14 PM

feeling like something is broken PPLNS, does it amplify variance?

4242 7 0.00000170538367 / 354 = .48 (=52% negative variance from PPS)
4241 8 0.00000194691120 / 354 = .55 (=45% negative variance from PPS)
4240 9 0.00000218239581 / 354 = .615
4239 11 0.00000266574438 / 354 = .75
4238 13 0.00000314915633 / 354 = .89
4237 13 0.00000314915633 /354 = .89
4236 13 0.00000314445819 / 354 = .887

PPLNS variance over a 24 hour period is equal to the pool's luck. Higher difficulty = fewer expected blocks per day = larger swings per day (up OR down) since each block is a larger percentage of the mean. Last difficulty luck was quite good. So far this difficulty, not good, but still plenty of time for a reversal.

have you considered removing PPS option? As far as my research goes, I've found out, that btcGuild PPLNS is more profitable than PPS. (in the long run, of course)