Quote from: ATC777 on March 31, 2013, 06:07:33 AM

I'm surprised it never actually made it to $100, with people as excited and irrationally bullish as they have been of late. Now I'm not sure if it will ever see $100 this year at all (it may, but it's questionable). It's just been kinda flat/dead lately with unusually low volume, which was not quite what I expected this week but does make sense.

Most of the "smart money" sold into the climb from $75 to $95 (personally, I sold in an inverted pyramid fashion along with them), and let the small fries and pigs gobble it up and hold the risk here. But the market seems to suggest the pigs didn't even have as much money to play with as I thought. The question now, in my mind, is whether there's another group of fools or a gambling pig out there with enough money to blow the bubble up to $100+ before it bursts, or if it will start making a slower and more orderly decline from here as the little guys decide to abandon ship.

I have a slight suspicion that we may sink slowly from here and create a sort of "malformed H&S" ... if that is the case I'd expect the last bounce at the neckline to be a bit weak with relatively low volume. But bitcoiners seem to love chaos lol. In any case, this bubble is just about done, no matter how you want to look at it... it would take a tremendous change in the underlying fundamentals to save it now and support these prices, otherwise it will simply run its course and pop. All miracles aside, the only thing I'm not so sure about is if it will see one last zooming breakout before it dies or not.

But I'm not one to hope for (or bet on) miracles, so I will remain a skeptic/bear unless Bitcoin itself can prove me wrong. I love Bitcoin, but I don't love $80+ bitcoins with this tiny user-base and illiquid/volatile market... But my biggest fear on that account (being wrong) is that the bubble will just grow a bit bigger, people will risk more money on it and then it will implode more violently... and the wake/aftermath might have a more harmful effect on the future of bitcoin. You might convince someone to grab a pot again after they've been burned once, by assuring them it will be cool this time... But after being burned twice will you grab it again? For most people the answer would probably be no...

Regards,

--ATC--

I bet you will be wrong in the next 5-6 days.

Price stability shows that the price is not just part of volatility. Smart money bought in 2012 and hasn't sold yet.

Those who sold between $75 and $95 made profit but may end up buying back in higher.

Don't hold your breath for a large dip in the near term.