Quote from: kalpit on December 17, 2016, 02:36:58 PM

One question, I don't know if it has been answered,
Would the mechanism of prediction be similar to that of Augur?
Do you have to buy share in prediction to gain profit? Do users have to invest to predict the outcome?

It is somewhat similar in concept, but the implementation is much different. While in Augur the reporters will be loosing REP's in case they don't report or change their report in the middle of process, we specifically designed WINGS to avoid any loss of tokens.

The way WINGS works is that anyone that has WINGS can make a forecast of how much a project will raise in funds, and also what are the chances of achieving predefined milestones (we will add more variables later but starting with this simplified model). That allows people to use crowd-sourced data to value a project, as well as perform risk assessment of achieving milestones, again based on crowd intelligence.

Participants who make forecasts then earn a portion of the fee that a project pays to the DAO. This portion set according to how close they are to the result (say I forecasted that wings would raise 2500 btc and it raised 2500 btc), their historical Forecast Rating (FR) and the amount of WINGS tokens they hold. Their FR also increases and decreases following how close they were to the right answer.

The scientific white paper describes the mathematical model in a more detail: http://wings.ai/docs/WINGS_Scientific.pdf

So imagine that being part of WINGS DAO is like having a job at JP Morgan or some VC fund as an analyst... your job is to tell people what you think will happen... how much is this thing valued at? Will the project deliver the new self-driving car in milestone 1? Will the car fly to the moon to unlock milestone 2?

Over time the people who are better at this get rewarded. But the bigger consequence of this is that over time anyone participating on a project that has not launched with WINGS is operating with a lot more risk.

By reducing the participation risk, we open the gates to a lot more people participating in funding projects who aren't professional crypto enthusiasts living breathing crypto for breakfast, lunch and dinner.