Quote from: hacknoid on January 04, 2017, 12:34:33 AM

Quote from: hacknoid on December 19, 2016, 02:37:05 PM

So... interesting; I came across this this morning in my twitter feed:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BCHAIN/MKPRU/nvcHNfKD-The-235-Day-Cycle-somehow-is-Still-Not-Dead/

Looking at it, there definitely seems to be something happening for at least a local maximum every 235 days or so... this comes pretty close to my 900-day cycle (which is strictly peak-to-peak), so I'm starting to look into maybe a 940-day super-cycle, divided into four 235 day phases or sub-cycles. This would still correspond to a new ATH reached each cycle (we again are in cycle 3 and have not yet reached this point), but would help to predict local maxima. It also falls away from the strict interpretation of where the peaks and valleys are, but keeps the concept of the cycle. I'll be looking into this more probably in a few weeks.

Interestingly, my initial finding (in previous thread) of a 670 (later refined to 694) day cycle is very close to a multiple of 235 days (705 days), which is still in agreement in principle. In fact, changing from a 670 to 900 day cycle is a delta of 230 days, or almost exactly the length of one of these sub-cycles.

BTW, for those asking about analysis based on market cap: I have done initial review, and the trending is not very different. The cycle trends stay the same, although the long-term graphs look a bit different. I'll finish up some work on those also, sometime soon, once Christmas is passed.

So I have done some more analysis, based on this article on TradingView; if I extend each cycle into 940 days, and make the phases 235 days, they look like this (from this point, I am taking to calling each 235-day grouping a "cycle" and the larger ones "supercycles")

Now what I see here definitely corresponds to a supercycle in cycles 1-4 and again in 5-8, but things have changed in 9-12. Why? Well, looks like it could be the change to a strong bear market following the China crackdown/Mt. Gox debacle at the start of 2014 (cycles 7-8). I think what that did is break the supercycle trend and it had to start all over again once the market sentiment changed bullish again (starting at the end of cycle Cool

. So, keeping the same 235-day cycles and omitting cycle 9, the third supercycle now looks like:

Now note that the start and end of each cycle is completely arbitrary at this point, but that doesn't matter when it comes to comparing cycles and supercycles (the length is what matters, and that stays the same). Using this formulation and comparing just the supercycles, it looks like this:

So there you go. I think the cycles still exist. I'll look into playing with the ending points of cycles and seeing what more I can glean, but looks good for now.

Your great on analyzing but you think it could be happen again.. since almost movement of bitcoin price are same movement but in different price .
Well we there is no exact time that the price could be the same spikes but theres no problem for trying it and set own margin and make some profit..
This is what happen right the price are gradually increasing just like before.. the spike still same but the date are not..
Lets hope that we can make a good result this coming months..