Quote from: Bordomboy on April 03, 2013, 06:41:22 PM

So was/has this same analysis been applied to the "event" in 2011?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-04-03zeg2011-12-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I don't believe the 2011 event counts as a bubble since the loss of confidence was caused by the hacking of exchanges and not of BTC itself, as how it was originally framed (and by the twitter trolls right now). But its interesting to me how the long money stayed in and the price stabilized even as pressure moved it down to the massive sell-off that happened at the end of 2011. I was watching it as a miner with a tiny share in one pool, but I take a larger position until later when it was back up to $10.

Today, I don't disagree that there is a correction due, but what heretofore is unknowable is the effect of worldwide hatred for bankers and the status quo, or the 'Global Insurrection Against Banker Occupation' Roll Eyes

, is driving real humans to pull their savings out of banks and out of their local state currency to get 'something' in on this now. Some are getting it that the bitcoin is the bread...as in Weimar in reverse... but the real hoarders of dollars is the vast, so called "dark pools" of capital... if even a small % of that takes a position in BTC, I see no sky.

So therefore, I think, even with the modest $1.5 billion marketcap, there is a potential for some banks to realize some losses as they start to lose their leverage with depositor's funds trickling out like sand. They may have access to debt liquidity to get in on this side of the bubble now, and even drive it up past your modest $250 forecast; but once margin calls start to threaten, we would see the first bull trap form as those institutions cover their spread. This would be their undoing.... the danger of even more fleeing depositors looms with BTC's further success, so the next fear-selling drop could still be the same vulnerable parties with too many "real world" securitizations to unwind still trying to cover lost leverage for these 'off-balance sheet' debts not yet on the public's balance sheet (where you know it will end up, thus raising the political heat).

This would mean untold volatility in the real-world capito-feudal, politico-banking system because the deposits, credit, and equity assets would effectively no longer be available as freely and wantonly as the banker's enjoyed before this spring.... so I think the potential for BTC to recover and normalize at a much, much higher value is very high.

I see a huge future in Bitcoins and the real possibility of quadruple digit prices but the use and liquidity and such is not there yet to create a real foundation for it's worth. It will take awhile for this to happen and the price has to stabilize somewhere. If the price doesn't stabilize somewhere or slowly go up like a normal commodity aka gold it will be hard to use as a currency.