Quote from: alcibiades on April 04, 2013, 04:48:46 AM

I believe that the Bitcoin ecosystem is growing exponentially. The news from Bitpay is a sign of this. They did $5 million worth of business last month - more than Silk Road. That could be $30 -$50 million by the end of the year. Tip bots on reddit, twitter, facebook, and email allow bitcoin to spread virally and fill the role it was meant for - the currency of the Internet.

But the price of Bitcoin is growing at a faster exponential. Part of this is pricing in the future exponential growth of Bitcoin. Part of it is speculation.

I predict that the price of Bitcoin is going to do a series of jagged swings over the next two years driven by speculation and hype bubbles and busts. But on a longer time scale, the swings will be centered on the true exponential of the Bitcoin economy.

So every now and then, people will get excited about bitcoin and bid it up to the ceiling of reasonableness. And then it will crash down below its true value. But if you watch the 6 month moving average it will be pure exponential up until market saturation.

The only thing that could stop this is the rise of a superior cryptocoin or widespread government persecution of cryptocurrencies.

ya. exactly!