Re: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious
Another opportunity to buy when others are fearful. Take your gift immediately while illogical fear is maximum and there is blood in the streets.
Re: China putting capital controls on BTC! (lol)
Afaics, the only practical technical way this can be accomplished is to ensure that the users never hold the private keys and thus ensuring that the exchanges do not allow any transfers to any Bitcoin address which is not controlled by the exchange (or another compliant exchange). To ensure that no exchange user can reside outside of China and that no such user can withdraw in fiat outside of the Chinese banking system. If they were to allow users to control private keys, then they would have to enforce such tracking on each user which is impractical to enforce.
Thus this proposal means that the Chinese could no longer participate in for example a social network (such as the project I am working on) where the crypto-currency moves from user-to-user regardless of their financial jurisdiction and in which the users control their private keys.
In other words, China would effectively be removing their citizens from the Bitcoin (and crypto-currency) ecosystem.
I don't see any way they can do this and not render China a 2nd class citizen on the future of the Internet economics. They will stunt the development of their own Internet software technology sector.
If China was going to do this, I think they would have done it a long time ago. I would tend to think this is some rumor put out there by those who wanted to make a lot of money shorting. Another sign that the corruption in governance also exists in the government of China's finance bureaucrats (and who would be surprised). Nevertheless before this could actually become a regulation, I think very astute people would have to sign off on it, and I just don't see China shooting themselves in the foot. They are too cunning for that. That Bloomberg has pulled the news off their website is another indication that this was probably malfeasance.
I see this as very likely a buying opportunity and a bear trap due to some errant malfeasance within the Chinese bureaucracy.
Afaics, the only practical technical way this can be accomplished is to ensure that the users never hold the private keys and thus ensuring that the exchanges do not allow any transfers to any Bitcoin address which is not controlled by the exchange (or another compliant exchange). To ensure that no exchange user can reside outside of China and that no such user can withdraw in fiat outside of the Chinese banking system. If they were to allow users to control private keys, then they would have to enforce such tracking on each user which is impractical to enforce.
Thus this proposal means that the Chinese could no longer participate in for example a social network (such as the project I am working on) where the crypto-currency moves from user-to-user regardless of their financial jurisdiction and in which the users control their private keys.
In other words, China would effectively be removing their citizens from the Bitcoin (and crypto-currency) ecosystem.
I don't see any way they can do this and not render China a 2nd class citizen on the future of the Internet economics. They will stunt the development of their own Internet software technology sector.
If China was going to do this, I think they would have done it a long time ago. I would tend to think this is some rumor put out there by those who wanted to make a lot of money shorting. Another sign that the corruption in governance also exists in the government of China's finance bureaucrats (and who would be surprised). Nevertheless before this could actually become a regulation, I think very astute people would have to sign off on it, and I just don't see China shooting themselves in the foot. They are too cunning for that. That Bloomberg has pulled the news off their website is another indication that this was probably malfeasance.
I see this as very likely a buying opportunity and a bear trap due to some errant malfeasance within the Chinese bureaucracy.
China Curbs Gold Imports
Don't bet on it. First of all, it will boost smuggling and black market activity. Bitcoin is a niche product, only few people are aware of it as an investment alternative. The direct impact of China news on Bitcoin prices is greatly exaggerated.
So I don't expect a rise in BTC price because of it. Even if the scenario you are pointing out becomes reality, restrictions for Bitcoin purchases would not succeed on a large scale, because you can't ban p2p trade.
China doesn't need to import BTC since most of the minted BTC is now mined inside of China. Unless China can track ongoing every BTC mined in China by requiring them to be sold and held on regulated exchanges that never allow users to have access to private keys (which would not be Bitcoin any more), then they have no hope of regulating it.
If China does basterdize BTC that way, then Bitcoin is dead. And we will just move on to another altcoin. In which case the mining farms in China will be useless door stops. Also China would be shooting its own technology sector in the foot. I just don't think China's think tanks are this stupid.
China is powerless to stop crypto-currency.
Besides the capital flight via BTC is so damn small so as to be insignificant. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is only a minuscule $12 billion. The daily volume on Bitcoin is $48 million and RNB forex volume is some $5 trillion annually or $14 billion daily. We need a 10 or 100X higher BTC price before we have to worry about it being significant to China's capital flight volumes.
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This would automatically shift demand to digital gold, aka Bitcoin. If that happens, you can expect China to take action restricting purchases of Bitcoin in some time. So a short and quick raise in bitcoin's price would be followed by a dump. 
Don't bet on it. First of all, it will boost smuggling and black market activity. Bitcoin is a niche product, only few people are aware of it as an investment alternative. The direct impact of China news on Bitcoin prices is greatly exaggerated.
So I don't expect a rise in BTC price because of it. Even if the scenario you are pointing out becomes reality, restrictions for Bitcoin purchases would not succeed on a large scale, because you can't ban p2p trade.
China doesn't need to import BTC since most of the minted BTC is now mined inside of China. Unless China can track ongoing every BTC mined in China by requiring them to be sold and held on regulated exchanges that never allow users to have access to private keys (which would not be Bitcoin any more), then they have no hope of regulating it.
If China does basterdize BTC that way, then Bitcoin is dead. And we will just move on to another altcoin. In which case the mining farms in China will be useless door stops. Also China would be shooting its own technology sector in the foot. I just don't think China's think tanks are this stupid.
China is powerless to stop crypto-currency.
Besides the capital flight via BTC is so damn small so as to be insignificant. The entire market cap of Bitcoin is only a minuscule $12 billion. The daily volume on Bitcoin is $48 million and RNB forex volume is some $5 trillion annually or $14 billion daily. We need a 10 or 100X higher BTC price before we have to worry about it being significant to China's capital flight volumes.
... [more to read] ...