... This would be especially true if we get any rumor out of China or India regulating Bitcoin further for capital controls. I don't expect it since Bitcoin is such an irrelevant small market cap, but Armstrong seems to think otherwise (yet he is not a Bitcoin expert and is always harping on this end of cash theme):
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/bitcoin-what-next/There are a few issues that I have not seen cleared up by Armstrong. He has said that he does not dislike Bitcoin and stated that he thinks Google Wallet is more important. That may be on the consumer side, but the system is always more complex behind the scenes where I think Bitcoin is more apt to reside.
I had inquired as to whether Socrates has enough information to forecast Bitcoin. No reply was made and I suspect this is why there have been no charts on it.
UniversalityOne of the most significant positives for Bitcoin is that it is a common platform; no nation is actively excluded or prevented from using it today. Any consortium effort that does not involve all sides will invariably lead to a situation as exists with SWIFT wherein major parties are excluded or threatened by controlling members, so China may be more inclined to incorporate Bitcoin due to its relative control over the system and the appealing attributes that attract other other nations. Those other nations might be wary but would be unable to deny the established global usage and overall simplicity of onboarding.
AdaptabilityAnother positive is the adaptability of the sytem: Bitcoin is capable of changing to a greater degree and at an exceptionally faster rate than current financial systems. Capital controls including AML/KYC affect all forms of money and take time to implement; it won't happen overnight. Thanks to the flexible nature of Bitcoin, it is very likely that Mike Hearn's exploration of control and tracking in the system will become reality sooner rather than later.
DurabilityThe longer Bitcoin proves itself as a reliable platform, the more likely it will be that major government entities will adopt it. Along with that adoption, they will seek to undermine the liberty-related aspects via that flexibility just as they do with any other non-trivial freedoms.
As you've stated, Bitcoin could become the world's reserve currency - the institutional playground. This leaves me wondering whether a new Bretton Woods agreement may peg fiat currency to Bitcoin, probably at a discounted rate prior to being declared void, during a transition period. What remains is the time between now and then where there are no well-defined rules governing the cryptocurrency frontier. What will the pegged price be? How long will it take until the changes have been made? Will all major governments agree at once or will there be a polarization? Is this even what will actually occur?