Quote from: baritus on January 12, 2017, 08:23:22 PM

Quote from: jaysabi on January 11, 2017, 05:51:48 PM

Quote from: baritus on January 04, 2017, 01:33:42 PM

Hello,

After successfully predicting BTC moves in 2016 here on the forum, I have a new set of 2017 predictions that I'm using to trade the current move.

1. Rise to $1,200-$1,300 (Current move)
2. Correction to $800-$900 level and range trading for a while
3. Rise to $1,500
4. Correction to $900-$1,000 and range trading for a while
5. Continued rise to $2,000 by end of year

tldr; BTC will double this year after making a couple of moves up and down.

Setting aside that your 2016 predictions weren't that accurate (50% accuracy is a coin flip), you provide nothing to back up your predictions, and currently aren't doing so well one week into 2017. Are you just shooting in the dark or do you have anything to base your predictions on other than whim? Because it seems more likely that we're in another deflating bubble period, as opposed to an environment that can sustain the momentum that ended 2016. This is a repeat of 2013.

I use a combination of technical analysis, fundamentals, and past behavior. I modify my results to account for the pump and dump nature of bitcoin movements. So basically, I increase variance.

What do you mean I'm not doing well one week into 2017? So far, I've traded all moves perfectly. I sold at peak and I am now looking to repurchase once I verify my support levels. Also, the 2016 predictions were extremely accurate from a trading perspective as following them resulted in a generous profit.

We've now dropped to the $800 level I thought would serve as support for range trading. The level was broken through briefly but the speed at which the price returned to above $800 strengthens the support significantly. I will probably begin to buy again if the level holds until Monday.

I don't think BTC is in a bubble phase. I think the bubbles are short lived and over time add long-lasting value.

Both my first and second predictions for this year happened almost exactly

I mean your ranges aren't holding. You call for a range of 1200-1300, then we reach a high of 1129, but you count that as a hit. Then you call for a drop of 800-900, and we drop through that, and you count that as a hit too. When you provide a lower limit, and then it drops below that, that's not a correct prediction. When you call for a minimum high and we don't reach that, that's not a correct prediction. So while you say your first two predictions happened almost exactly, I see an 0 for 2 prediction record this year.

What I am interested in is that you're getting general trends right (just not accurate on the price ranges), and if you're using technical analysis, that would at least be something to base your predictions on, so I'll be interested to see if that continues being in the ballpark going forward. Anyone can be right in a limited data set. You've called for some pretty bullish price appreciation this year, which I don't particularly see as likely, so I'll be watching with interest to see if you've got that right, and be the first to congratulate you if you are. But I'm not holding my breath.