Quote from: johny08 on January 14, 2017, 12:15:49 PM

Quote from: fdgara on January 14, 2017, 10:26:21 AM

Since everyone here likes to speculate on price, here is my analysis on what we can achieve this year. I like to use existing data in order to project future outcomes. So in this post, I will compare it to ETH since this has come up quiet a lot recently.

Although, we are comparing ICN (token that runs on Ethereum) vs ETH which is the gas that powers the Ethereum blockchain, they both have almost the same available supply. ICN is 87m and ETH 87.8m. So far the early charts for ETH are looking very similar to ICN. Because they have the same available supply, we can assume with a high degree of confidence that if and this is a BIG IF, but if ICN manages to increase the volume (which is indirect measure of demand), then we should see the same price action.

To put it simply, price is a product of supply and demand. Therefore, if supply is same for ETH and ICN, demand (volume is strong indicator for demand) will determine the price over the next 12 months.

Lets look at volume for ICN.... Right now, we have hit $0.5 million in 24 hours approximately 3 times in the last month. In order to repeat the same bull rally that we saw with ETH, we will need to start with minimum $1m in volume everyday. This is certainly achievable after the platform announcement.

In the next couple of months after announcement, I expect strong PR campaign by the team across cryptocurrency channels and mainstream media. They have already been listed on reputable publications like forbes, International Business times etc... In addition to that, we can expect to go 'viral' on YouTube and Facebook if there is a referral/affiliate program. (I.e. for every person you refer and deposits more than $100, you get a commission from that).

At that point, the quality of the product and service provided by Iconomi will determine whether people will invest into the platform and ICN. In order to see prices of $5+, we need peak 24 hour volume to reach $30-$50m at some stage this year. I know we are a long way from that right now, but do not underestimate the power of FOMO in Cryptocurrency. Believe me, The FOMO in these markets is REAL!

It is important to note however, it is expected that majority of ICN token holders will hold their tokens in their own private wallet to accumulate dividends, with a high percentage of them (I will be one of them) reinvesting dividends into buying more ICN. Coupled with the fact that there is no inflation and no mining, we can assume with high degree of confidence that the price of ICN will be a lot less negatively suppressed than ETH.

This means A) we can reach the same prices that ETH had with less volume/demand or B) If we achieve the same volume/demand that ETH had, then we should expect higher prices for ICN due to the 2 points mentioned above.

For the sake of being objective and not sounding deluded, ETH has a much bigger advantage over ICN due to the fact it is listed on multiple exchanges. It will be very difficult for ICN to achieve the same volume we had with ETH on only Kraken... So hopefully, we will see ICN pop up on more exchanges soon. Yes, Kraken is good enough for now. It has enough security and liquidity for most ICN holders. However, I don't think it will be enough to achieve the kind of volume that we are hoping for by itself. The reason is arbitrage. People make a lot of money from buying and selling across multiple exchanges during periods of high volatility. This increases volume and is really important factor in terms of how markets work.

What are other exchanges waiting for? I think that's a topic for another post.... However, I'm optimistic that even if major exchanges like polo do not list ICN because they see OFM platform as a rival, we will see several smaller exchanges list ICN. There are several well know exchanges that are struggling for volume such as Coinsquare, Bittrex, Yobit, Yunbi, Gemini etc... Those are all exchanges outside of top 10 in volume and will benefit massively by adding ICN. I think it's realistic that ICN will be on minimum 6 more exchanges in 2017.

TL;DR keep an eye on 24hour volume over the next couple of months. This should be a strong indicator (not the only indicator) but very strong indicator on whether or not we will see the same price for ICN as we saw for ETH 2016.

Thats kind of very long BS letter. Analysis is something different and you dont understand the market. Start with books about that first, dont watch documentaries. You cant learn anything with that.

I think that was a very nice analisys from a newbie member. Nice mate! Everybody can have his own analisys and thnaks to share with us!