Quote from: hgmichna on May 02, 2013, 02:02:41 PM

As I wrote:

Quote from: hgmichna on April 07, 2013, 08:41:25 AM

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

Yup. Ironic how easy it always looks by hindsight.

Quote

But I stick to my earlier prediction that "we will see the bitcoin price essentially shrink over the next couple of months." I also predict that the price will go below $40.

Of course, that latter prediction can turn out to be wrong if something unforeseen happens, but I still consider it very likely that the price will go below $40 at some time later this year or next.

Below $40 for a longer time feels quite unlikely. There are so many dollars lurking to get back in.

Quote

The big question in a price bubble is always when to sell or how long to ride the wave. The longer you hold on, the higher the profit, but the bigger the risk that the bubble bursts before you got out. During a bursting bubble you can usually not trade, because the exchanges stop working, so you can lose a lot.

Being conservative, I tend to sell early, more or less when I recognize that I'm in a bubble. But I'm working on it. Predicting bubbles may be one of the finer arts of speculation. It remains very imprecise though, because a few biggish sales can prick a bubble, and these cannot be predicted.

I tend to not be able to sell in the bubble but then panic sell at the low point afterwards Roll Eyes

Quote from: hgmichna on May 02, 2013, 04:01:45 PM

For the next months the answer is generally: down. The price will fluctuate up and down, but overall it will go down, perhaps to $20, perhaps lower.

Why are you so sure of it going down? Media attention peaked but now a lot of whales know about Bitcoin. The whales take their time or just wait for an opportunity to enter.

There was a slow dwindle in 2011 but that does not mean we will have another one in 2013.