Quote from: OROBTC on February 18, 2017, 06:51:58 PM

It has always been my working thesis that none (let's say very few) of us can know the future. It is too complex...

Quote from: r0ach on February 18, 2017, 07:30:32 PM

For one thing, there is A REASON the majority of large human settlements through history have been bordering the ocean. If the crops go bad or if there's some type of scarcity issue, people just ratchet up the fishing. There will be no global "TEOTWAWKI".

Sorry guys but you are incorrect. Stage #5 is not just one of many possible outcomes, it is the ONLY possible outcome. And the totalitarianism will be global w.r.t. to all things tangible and physical (including precious metals!), thus the only release valve frontier will be decentralization network technology. See the problem with your idyllic and naive fishing plan, is that some power will be preventing you from fishing as TSHTF, because the masses are going to be demanding that the resources are shared equally (which will morph into rationing+eugenics) and the chaos is going to dictate that there is fighting over control of all strategic resources. Remember the masses are not armed (especially outside of the USA) and for example the coasts in the USA are leftists controlled States, e.g. California, Washington and the north-east seaboard. China has ample military to occupy the West coast of the USA and prop up the leftists. The fish food supply would be critical if the conservative interior of the country has shut off supply of food to the coasts. Shutting down trade with the world and access to electronics and other technology can cripple the interior of the USA. An essential ingredient is have an interior that is steadfast on resisting international cooperation and the rise of China, which is Trump is the leading edge of right now. China will see itself as leading the "free" world to international harmony by defeating the renegade white supremacists in the USA. It is very obvious why Rothschild used his influence over Wikileaks and media in the USA to install Trump (also so the conservatives will eat the blame for the global collapse caused by socialism).

The socialism doesn't just die overnight. It dies a painful death of self-destructive totalitarianism. Haven't you guys learned anything from the studying the history of the collapse of Germany or Rome.

If you want to understand why the entropy of the top-down ordered outcome is so low and thus so predictable, refer to the Petri dish analogy from my seminal essay:

Quote from: CoinCube on December 02, 2013, 11:08:59 PM

Quote from: AnonyMint on December 01, 2013, 04:49:21 AM

Understand Everything Fundamentally <--- published in 2011, also here.

Also you have to factor in that China and Russia don't have the socialism and pension debts problem that the West has (their debts can be written off as their demographics and unfunded social liabilities are not yet a huge inertia so their downturn can bottom in 2020 whereas the West will continue to disintegrate even after 2032); thus as China is rebalancing their economy from the Industrial Age exports to the Knowledge Age service industry and consumption (see upthread links to Michael Pettis' blogs), they will displace the West, become the new financial center of the world, and be very strong. Thus the totalitarianism isn't going to abate, because on the heels of the disintegration of the West, China's and Russia's Technocracy form of oligarchy control is rising to a NWO. After Rothschilds' succeeds in dividing-and-conquering Europe and the USA, then he will send Chinese troops into the USA and Russian troops into Europe to complete the NWO enslavement. You aren't going to have any respite. The only release valve is going to be decentralization network technology. The Barbarians are the gates and in another couple to few of decades they will be in your living room. Your silly tangible assets are going to be pet rocks.

What Rothschilds is doing right now is building a short dollar vortex of epic pain, so the world will hate the concept of a reserve currency controlled by any one nation. So the world will acceded to an international cooperative SDR reserve unit (which of course Rothshilds will control with the international central bank).

Quote from: iamnotback on January 16, 2017, 03:39:10 AM

Quote from: OROBTC on January 15, 2017, 11:45:49 PM

there are too many variables out there, too many "Swans", for me to find it useful in a practical way.

Then all planning is useless.

Of course it is nonsense that we are entirely incapable of understanding human transformation and doing some planning.

Just throwing your hands in the air and saying everything is random is not at all in touch with reality. This is what pushes you back to gold, because you only trust the past. If everything was entirely random, then we couldn't even be sure if we can breathe if we open the door. The reason we have great confidence that there is oxygen in the next room is because it is a very low entropy result to maintain a vacuum.

By understanding entropy, we can indeed understand the progression of society. CoinCube's model is all about transitions to higher levels of entropy (not energy unless perhaps he is thinking of potential energy and its relationship to degrees-of-freedom) and the contention between top-down order and bottom-up disorder that facilitates it.

Quote from: iamnotback on January 21, 2017, 09:17:47 AM

Quote from: r0ach on January 21, 2017, 06:28:22 AM

Unlike Anonymint, I do not believe we live in a deterministic universe.

Readers please note that r0ach continues to write lies both about my and Armstrong's stances.

I even explained to him upthread how the universe remains unbounded in entropy (and thus not deterministic), yet cycles can be still be valid. A cycle doesn't tell you every damn little detail.

The sun rises every day, but that doesn't mean the bugs wake up or visit the same flower every sunrise.

It is really annoying the various crap that writers do on these forums by insinuating or attributing positions to others which are not their positions. It is not professional behavior.