Quote from: John Titor on February 21, 2017, 10:59:04 PM

Quote from: iamnotback on February 21, 2017, 06:56:36 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 21, 2017, 06:18:42 PM

Quote from: manselr on February 21, 2017, 04:55:19 PM

$2,500 to $5,000 seems like what I was considering.

Another statistic I like to look at is the 21 BTC holding value. 21 BTC means less than 1 million people club, being on that part must mean big wealth long term for the holders of such amount.

In order to be a millionaire with 21 BTC, we must reach around $47,000

The question is, what are the chances that we see such $47,000 in any of the following bubble cycles? is it possible in 10-20 years?

It seems feasible in 10 years, maybe even less.

If it is going to happen, it has to happen within that timeframe. Twenty years from now, the world will have moved on.

I don't think $5000 is the final top (but a significant pullback could occur some some where in that order-of-magnitude and above $5000, the upside potential is becoming more balanced to the downside risk). But $1 million per BTC ($21 trillion market cap) is totally implausible IMO (Bitcoin zealots please don't hate me, just expressing my opinion).

In that $2500 - $5000 range, I would seriously look to diversifying into an alternative blockchain project with some portion of your holdings. Napster wasn't the final word in file sharing. Bitcoin won't likely be the homerun final word in blockchains.

I understand the argument about the world rallying around the system with the most inertia, but the problem is Bitcoin hasn't yet identified the killer app of blockchains. So it is still prone to be upstaged by the WWW (World Wide Web) invention of blockchains whatever that ends up being.

I think this is a fairly reasonable prediction, the only real unknown is timeframe. One thing I really wonder though is this, can this kind of price rise happen in the short term without any sort of scaling solution? Right now the bitcoin blockchain seems to be really feeling the weight of massive transaction loads, and solutions have been shut down at implementation level, both for things like a block size increase and segwit.

Will people just deal with long confirmation times (I've already had transaction take several hours to confirm in just the last week) and keep sending bitcoin higher? Or will we need to see at the very least a short term scaling solution for that to happen? If the answer is yes we may see action move back to alt market for a time and have bitcoin stagnate (albeit temporarily, it will only be a matter of time for scaling to be improved), but I am not entirely confident about this prediction.

My theory on this is that at the moment is it very hard for bitcoin to go 'mainstream' with or without segwit/ blocksize increase, mainly because it is still a difficult concept to understand & secure, fiat works relatively well in the Western world for the masses and the propanganda machine is still (barely) holding on.

Anecdotally what we see is this

- when national fiat hits an economic speedbump an increase in local bitcoins seems to occur (Russia as their currency dropped etc)
- when national fiat gets devalued, and traders / speculators / those partaking in capital flight expect more, the price of bitcoin increases (see China & Yuan)
- when there is an economic upset (Trump, Brexit, unexpected Yuan deval) we see a bump in bitcoins price (whether speculators pushing this narrative or genuine movement might be irrelevant and become self fulfilling if speculation
- growing perception that bitcoin is a safe haven outside of government run systems
- limited correlation of bitcoin to other asset classes
- hype about the potential use of blockchain tech has gained some important supporters who see uses for their industries

So what can loosely take out of this? That bitcoin is existing as a hedge against the system and that in a crisis there is an increasing possibility of an influx into bitcoin.

Take this line of thinking into iamnotback's forecast of the rise of knowledge, decentralization and an upcoming, unparalled economic crisis (a mix of his own, Armstrong, Rickards, Pettis etc work) and the future is interesting.

If TPTB lose control & people lose confidence in The Fed, bitcoin is in for a hell of a run. If they manage to stem the bleeding and implement an SDR confidence stop-gap, that may deflate bitcoin but I doubt for long. If they go "ice-nine" then local bitcoins will be the biggest thing since sliced bread.