Not new to bitcoin have been collecting/trading Bitcoin for a veeeeery long time . I have my self said btc can drop to 500 but thinking bitcoin will drop to 250 is bit of a strech and almost impossible with the market cap. I can not imagine a bad news coming along that will make Bitcoin lose 80%
that's what people thought for a little while in late 2013 then china and gox happened. could something of a similar magnitude happen again? i think the strongest possibility is some sort of fork event. in that case 80% might be optimistic.
right,well Mt gox was a disaster but keep in mind like what is happening now in China with authoreties being on exchangers behind to make sure they are playing fair and that will make people more confident in Bitcoin. As for a fork well ETH did well so it should not be a problem for bitcoin