Quote from: SwannyMatt on April 11, 2013, 05:05:59 AM

Quote from: essem on April 11, 2013, 03:02:24 AM

Quote from: SwannyMatt on April 11, 2013, 01:49:31 AM

First off, I aint selling.
Secondly, I do believe chart patterns are mostly -- if not entirely -- a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.

What? Someone care to explain this statement?

Line 1: Not selling in case I'm wrong. Because the fundamentals for bitcoin obviously haven't changed. But the technicals clearly have, and perception may have changed.

Line 2: I believe technical analysis is pseudoscience/self-fulfilling prophecy, but I use it as an indicator anyway only because I know lots of other people in the market trade that way.

Comprendé?

Ever hear the story of the young man who left his Indian tribe to study at Harvard?

He graduates from Harvard then goes to Wall St. He's making millions a year.
He gets a call from his tribe that the Chief has died and the tribe wants him to be chief.
He accepts and moves back west.
First order of business is the tribe wants to know how much wood to collect for winter.
Chief says come back in 1 hour.
He calls the weather service and asks about their prediction for the winter.
Weather service says, looks like we'll have a pretty mild winter, like last year.
Chief tells his tribe to collect enough wood for 6 weeks, just to be safe. Tribe collects wood.
Chief calls the service a few weeks later, asks how bad will winter be.
Service says it looks like winter will be a worse than we expected.
Chief tells tribe to go collect 2 weeks more wood.
A few more weeks, chief calls the weather service, asks same question.
Weather service says looks like winter is going to be worse than we expected.
Chief tells tribe collect 2 more weeks of wood.
Few weeks go by chief calls weather service, asks same question gets same response.

This time Chief asks, what is wrong with your computer models? How can they be so wrong and change so much?

Weather services replies, Oh we don't use computers we look at how much wood the Indians collect and base out predictions on that.