Quote from: actmyname on March 02, 2017, 11:56:44 PM

Quote from: defcon23 on March 02, 2017, 10:38:07 PM

You've proved that [139954a360] is a part of [17a6c0fbac], which is part of [0fe6ed7d35]. Thus, what you have done is tried to connect the accounts of Lutpin and mexxer-2 solely with mexxer-2's transactions to Lutpin. What you've done can't really be considered a link. If I have sent bitcoins to satoshi multiple times over a year, does that mean that I am satoshi as well? Roll Eyes

You spent a lot of time figuring out change wallets, but it didn't connect Lutpin and mexxer-2's wallets together - apart from transactions (that could have been anything at all)

Sending money from an address connected to one person to a deposit address connected to another person one time is not evidence that two people are in fact the same person (it would be possible that these two people were simply trading with each other). However when someone sends BTC from their address to a deposit address belonging to someone else, the "trading" excuse starts to become less credible, and it will look more like these two people are actually one person, especially when the amounts vary so widely and the timing cannot be linked to any kind of public trade request for any of the transactions. The trying to hide the deposit address belonging to lutpin adds to suspicion.

Obviously the above is not a solid link between two people, and mitigating factors could easily explain away/disprove the connection. The only real mitigating evidence that I am aware of that mexxer-2 and lutpin are different people are their very different maturity levels, and nothing along the lines of someone reputable shipping items to each of them, and shipping said items to very different parts of the world.

There is more circumstantial evidence than just the above that suggests they might be the same person, for example in the past, both have often responded to threads at almost the same time, and both had misread the exact same thing numerous times. Both's interest also appear to shift at roughly the same time, and both are involved in similar types of business. Some of this might be able to be explained away by the fact that they claim to be close friends, other parts of this cannot.

When taking all of the available evidence together, including what defcon just posted, I would put the chances of mexxer-2 and lutpin being the same person somewhere in the 65%-70% range...