Post
Topic
Board Service Discussion
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
by
ThickAsThieves
on 14/04/2013, 11:52:30 UTC
If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat.  Have I missed something here?

I don't think so.  I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.

The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods:   
   BTC IN
Jan 16th   1992532
Feb 13th   1174083
Mar 13th   240936
Apr 9th   121371
Thanks both.  That clears that one up for me and is affirmed by looking at the upper chart of dooglus's pair for the same time frames where we can see the 1.9% edge line showing proportionally the same jumps over the same time periods.  I was under the understanding however that the primary reason for the massive drop after Feb was more to do with the disappearance of a 'whale' rather than anything to do with usd/btc.  But maybe ThickAsThieves, your assumtion has some merit in explaining the halving in revenue between the latter pair of periods.  This is not as obvious just by looking at the charts - which lazily has been my means of keeping tabs on how my investment is doing.

The whales certainly distorted things. Would be great to have them back though.