Quote from: aminorex on April 04, 2017, 06:33:30 PM

Quote from: kurious on April 04, 2017, 06:51:57 AM

You are convinced the fork is inevitable? I think even the possibility is destabilising - but with BTC at this price, it seems to not be priced in, indicating IMO that it is not thought to be definite by the market.

I am not saying you're wrong, but I wonder how you feel it's a done deal it will happen.

I am not privy to private dealings between the players. I am only looking at the exoteric game. I can't see any way in which miners can be incentivized to stay with core, in the current political environment. They will vote to maximize their utility under discounting, and that seems clearly to mean BTU. The fact that ETC + ETH was profitable is a strong reinforcer. I am inclined to buy BTU futures below 200USD. And yes, that's a very binary bet, but at 5:1 it is pretty compelling, I think.

Interesting, and thanks for this - but personally I can't see a contentious fork doing anything other than damage to BTC. I am unsure it is comparable to ETH / ETC and that the split will be necessarily profitable, because of the 'only 21m coins ever' will (to the outside world and MSM) look like a broken promise.

Also the forkopalypse will be potentially catastrophic to the whole market as former 'certainties' may seem so undermined as to see a flight of capital away from crypto - certainly at least while the split disrupts things. 5:1 is possible, but it's nowhere near that in ETH / ETC (now) and the reputational damage might possibly make the split coin values add up to less than the value of the one BTC pre-split.

I was surprised you seemed so sure, but I do see what you mean and will adjust my risk assessment. If you're right, of course I hope it does benefit XMR. The market will adjust to BTC losing it's unassailable right to be the majority of the crypto market cap, yes, but only a few coins can really benefit - and being 'BTC-alike' will not help any coin wishing to position itself as a contender, which in theory means XMR is extremely well placed; hopefully like Mo Farah at back of the leading group of runners keeping calm, waiting for the perfect moment to power up to the front and take the lead.

We live in interesting times.